Georealist

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452 Comments

    • Tue Dec 2nd 22:08 PM
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      Citigroup Sees Gold Reaching $2000
      For those posters not aware..WE ARE NOT IN THE 1990s....always smart to start the discussion in the correct decade..or century.
      Citi is not a monolithic unity...many parts..many opnions..this one on gold makes much sense..
      This liquidity has to come out somewhere..Some tremendous presure will start to build in Spring 2009. At the first hint of a US$ weakening..at the first whiff of inflation..just about the time the markets realize no new..as in none!..oil product has been developed and is on line..then watch the stuff fly.
      Those genius' in those1.25% T-bills will start slamming thru the "I'm getting hammered" door and voila! Gold is $1500 and climbing $75 a week..and silver..lost in the shuffle ....slams past $25 on a one way trip to $50.......
      View article »
    • Tue Dec 2nd 21:09 PM
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      Clear Trends Are Beginning to Emerge
      "This latest selloff." ????? Do you mean NOW..this is Tuesday the 2nd and the Dow is UP..so this "Latest" selloff lasted..one day???
      In spite of what help blah blah blah above says..your article clarifies nothing! So you're long SRS...so what? My take on this really juvenile article..
      1. Learn to proof read your garbage..
      2. Have enough courage to lay out a scenario that's specific in recommendations...or
      3. Keep this nonsense to yourself....mommy might like it but no one whose not a pal will......
      View article »
    • Tue Dec 2nd 20:59 PM
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      Another Way to Hedge Gold Stocks
      Just a few things that need some light..First.when someone BUYS DZZ they are most certainly NOT hedging AUY or any other mining stock. They ARE hedging (establishing a Double Short positions) gold..
      Mining stocks move..more thanone would hope..in alternate universes..and an investor is certainly not covering specific risk in AUY...

      I have a little different take on the whole long position side.....and the short. I'd BUY gold (GLD) any time we move to a standard deviation below 2 for the 52 week moving average. I'd go long DZZ (in a conservative averaging in basis!) at 2 or 3 standard deviations ABOVE the 52 week average gold price.
      It's all about the percentages baby...they didn't build Las Vegas going all in.
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    • Mon Dec 1st 10:00 AM
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      The Ag Industry: Another Credit Crisis Casualty?
      There's a series of pernicious assumptions in this analysis..first, that emerging market producers have the capacity and know how to take credit and translate it into efficient, profitable market operations. They are EMERGING for a reason..infrastructure issues (not the least of which includes transport)..political issues..knowledge and implementation issues..water issues..and last but not least...repayment issues.
      The real ag game is being played on the nation state front..countries that have either trashed or never had suitable growing environments are buying huge chunks of arable land in African countries for instance..This is a VERY two edged sword..He who sells can also take back.
      You may have a certain point to make..however..you have NO investible ideas! This is an INVESTMENT blog...comprende???
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    • Sun Nov 30th 12:59 PM
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      Rating: +1 0
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      Gold: The Next Reserve Currency Player
      Interesting comments..especially Mr. Lathrops..apparently he thinks we should stupidly stare at trillions in potential liquidity andmay..well..go play golf. The Gulf States taking steps to protect themselves sounds very reasonable to me...their geographic location is enviable and they have the monetary heft to carefully pull it off.
      Nothing wrong with the ETF metals funds...a physical position is always the best foundation but sometimes not the easiest to trade. If any of this gets further than speculation..and it has a very good chance of doing so...silver could e the biggest winner yet.
      View article »
    • Fri Nov 28th 11:49 AM
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      Rating: +8 -2
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      In Search of the Next Reserve Currency
      This entire thread reminds me of the fantasy currency discussion a few months back..the Iranian Bourse! This was the NEXT great threat to the dollar..all to be held at a location (I saw real pictures of this place) that makes Elko Nevada look decidedly upscale. ALL..as in every word..of some currency taking the US$ place as a reserve currency is absurd..as for the European community..that group of gutless, pretentious papershufflers will be fortunate to keep the Euro on resucitation thru 2010.
      The ONLY "currency" that could possibly take its place alongside the dollar in the commercial scheme of things is gold.The GCC (major Gulf States oil powers) have great respect for gold..and IF they were to mandate all oil sales be paid for on a 90/10 (90% US$ and 10% gold)
      basis until 2012..then 80/20 at that point just who would..or could..refuse????
      This would be a very shrewd move by the Gulf oil powers..they'd protect themselves against this liquidity fest the Fed and Treasury are indulging in..and they could use the gold as the foundation for their transition to THE world banking power.....
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    • Wed Nov 26th 23:31 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
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      No Silver Lining for Precious Metal Bugs
      I suppose you don't need another negative response...my advice is not to post on gold and/or silver until you know what your talking about. The people who invest in either are hard core and very well informed. Some tend to lean towards the conspiracy side too much to suit me..but you're heavily overmatched here.
      By the by..silver has many advantages over gold that may well show themselves soon..It's a highly respected tech metal..including water purification, ultra demanding mirrored surfaces, ad infinitum...It also is, and will continue to be, a very economical way for those who don't have the $1500 an ounce gold will soon command to participate in something like real money.
      View article »
    • Wed Nov 26th 21:08 PM
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      Oil Guesses Are Wrong Again, Contango Grows
      It's time to come back to some basics..instead of the convoluted reasoning that's infected markets for so long. Contango is a normal condition. Distant prices exceed current spot. This may, of course, if the amount is great enough, cause hoarding..buy now..avoid the pain later. What we are seeing, however, are investors doing the math and looking at what is inevitable in the oil/gas market. Less drilling..less product..IEA report=Terrible news...price 6 months from now will be higher.
      A very smart assumption. Enjoy your $2 gas..it will NEVER last.
      View article »
    • Wed Nov 26th 09:41 AM
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      Rating: +1 0
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      The Diminishing Safe Haven Matrix
      Well written and to the point..That NEXT scenario is most interesting. My take is we are very likely to see a divergence coming. Equities will likely take another dose of strong medicine in the early Winter..only this time the US$ may not fare so well as a safe haven..and UDN looks very appetizing with far to go.
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 25th 21:32 PM
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      The Reasoning Behind Oil's Irrationality
      So..oil is irrationally priced..but Mr. Ward gives endless reasons explaining why it's not! Every commodity explodes past a pure supply/demand point..oil did it..gold has done it..silver certainly has done it. It hardly needs conspiracy theories or hints of them to account for this..pure greed and a realization that at the end of any boomlet the least capable want on the wagon.
      Also..it helps to gets one's stats right..if we're talking about crude oil..the Peak production year was 2005 with73.81 MBd..if..IF..NGLs are included then 86 and change in 2007 is the right number....
      The problem with this character is he attempts to intimidate with numbers and shallow analysis..he doesn't know which direction he's going in...so why would we!
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 25th 21:17 PM
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      Talisman Energy: Stock is Cheap and Analysts are Skittish
      And also...bravo TA (message above).."every dog and his fleas have recommended this stock (TLM)." We know for a fact at least one of the fleas!!
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 25th 21:15 PM
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      Talisman Energy: Stock is Cheap and Analysts are Skittish
      It's interesting looking back on Mr. Ward's recommendations. Of course, this one hasn't turned out so well...but, then, we don't know if he had the courage of his convictions and invested in TLM or just likes to poke his finger in someone's eye. One gets the impression he talks the talk but seldom walks the walk.
      In any case...a little post mortem...
      Mr. Ward seems enamoured of Vietnam...despite it's very solid reputation as a VERY difficult place to do business..and as..well..a Communist government that by its very foundational principles doesn't hold with private property...Until, of course, it's been developed. Then it looks awfully enticing!
      Mr. Ward, however, thinks Canadian trusts are going down a rathole..although this also seems to be a figment of his sarcastic imagination. In any case..it caveat emptor where the "analyst" is concerned.
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    • Tue Nov 25th 21:07 PM
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      Rating: +2 0
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      Issuing Debt for as Long as Our Republic Will Last
      A Century Bond!! Absolutely brilliant..99.999 years of losing money thru currency depreciation! Why don't we just call it the dunce cap bond..and everyone can wear a funny looking hat!
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 25th 11:58 AM
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      Rating: 0 -1
      Commented on:
      Canadian Royalty Trusts Will Never Return to Their Former Glory
      Mr. Ward obviously has a strong need to defend himself..considering his investment recommendations I'm not surprised. For example..TLM..which he lauded back in March has lost 47% (dividend adjusted) since. PWE..which he either does or doesn't like..this year or some other year..has lost 42% (distribution adjusted). Neither very exemplary..
      apparently he like Canadian Oil Sands..fascinating..ev... hear of the environmental lobby in Canada? Oil sands are possibly the WORST possible way to play energy for the forseeable future.
      paultaut's certainly not my favorite poster..however..his typing certainly matches Mr. Wards..who seems to be in a spastic fit when responding.

      Mr. Ward's the fear mongering comment concerning a possible elimination of tax credits is also a shot in the dark. The Obama administration will play most things close to the vest. "Marxists" will get buried under the avalnche of middle of the roadism.

      Finally....it's hard to criticize PWE for acquiring conventional assets when the future of oil sands/tar sands is so shaky. The current meltdown has made all exploration and drilling difficult..this will lead to reduced supply and by Spring 2009 another relentless drive up in oil prices..and conventional assets will look very appealing. Especially if they're not in political snakepits like Vietnam (TLM..remember?).
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    • Sun Nov 23rd 22:27 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
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      Will the Saudis Buy Gold and Silver Shares Now?
      I like your thinking..The Saudis would be VERY shrewd to buy gold..and silver..Physical gold and silver that is...my conservative guess is that they could transition from being the swing oil producer to being the only truly sound, hard money nation on earth...with profound investment and currency implications. It could well translate into a new oil transaction hub with the Saudis..in 20 years..replacing Swizterland as the worlds bankers and currency arbiters.
      The logic of this move..and the timing..would make for financial history.
      View article »