Larry Bellehumeur
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Latest Comments62 Comments
Some Tech Sector Optimism
May be the first time that I haven't been called an "Idiot" in a long time in the responses....=)
138602 -- Buying Yahoo may be a good way to gain on this deal, if you're ok with the risk of a deal collapsing again. I'm not much for buying into a company in this scenario unless it is a company that I feel I would be comfortable in owning for the long term if the deal fell through. If this is the case with you and Yahoo, then I would say Go for it.
Roger -- Nothing with Google would surprise me anymore. I haven't heard the same rumour, but since they are doing some work in the Smart phone space, they could likely use some of that work towards a PC Based system. Even if they did, however, it might be tough to take on the MSFT machine. They released their own versions of Office, and this hasn't dented the earnings like I thought it might. Something to watch though, whenever Google sets you in their sights....
Jepittman -- I'd be a little hyprocritical to add Qualcomm now, as I wrote an article that attacked their business model in the past. However, with their new Gobi Chipset hitting the market (does GSM and CDMA), I may have been premature.... Time will tell on how much play they will have in the LTE market (if they can show half of the dominance as they showed in the CDMA space, which they invented, you may be dead-on).
Disclosure -- I am a Director at a company that indirectly buys products from Qualcomm. No position in the company.
IThinkBig -- My disclosure is listed at the end of the article. I am long (and painfully underwater) on Cisco, and Research in Motion (wasn't one of the picks, but was mentioned in the article). I have my buy order in for Intel @ $12.75 and for MSFT at $18.50 (might be too low, actually), so I have my money where my mouth is....
Cheers
Larry
Peak Oil's Bell Is Ringing
Are These Seven Defensive Blue-Chips Finally a Good Buy?
Long/Short -- You could be right. I did mention that Kraft was somewhat susceptible to this, as are companies such as Kimberley-Clark. Not sure if this is an issue with Coke at all (Coke's dominance is not likely to be downgraded to a local brand). With P/G, sure, there could be some drops when it comes to batteries and razors, but they have been through these downturns before, and carry a lot of clout with the retailers. A serious threat would be if Wal-Mart decided to play the Generic game to a greater extent!
thanks for both of your comments...
Larry
Are These Seven Defensive Blue-Chips Finally a Good Buy?
Ken - I don't mind having my spelling corrected. I hope that you were able to still enjoy the article, despite my incorrect spelling of PG.
138602 -- Thanks for your kind words. Indeed, Diageo would be one of the 5. I probably should have bought some on Friday, when it dipped below $52 (for the ADR). The reality is that Sin stocks, such as Diageo, all fair well during downtimes. Since their brands for the most part have strong leadership positions (most are in the Top 3 in their categories), I would suspect that they should weather the storm well and that most of the downside is priced into the stock. I also like Diageo for the long-term as a potential play on the Baby-Boom, as people upgrade their selection as their disposable income increases. As long as you have a decent time horizon (if you are looking at under 1-2 years, I can't help you much), I would buy this one. As I said, I should have bought last Friday!
Disclosure -- Bought VZ (last Friday, luckily before the spike), PG (at $55 today), and a 1/2 Position in KO (I think around $41.50).
Cheers and I appreciate your comments, even those about my spelling and possible grammatical errors!
Larry
Is the Best Offense Really a Good Defense?
I echo your sentiment, although I might not have worded it in the same manner.
Even Buffett himself is down this year, so no one is above the market. While there is no way to avoid getting hit during a massive downslide in the market, this way might at least offer a "blanket of safety" during troubled times.
thanks for reading
Larry
Four Energy Bargains
I do thank you for taking the time to read this article...
Larry
Four Energy Bargains
Galt -- A lot of the "nerves" that an investor has depend on what an their situation is. If you are like me (2 decades before retirement, and don't use my investment money for day to day living), then it is easier to be patient than if someone who is retired, and need their nest egg for day to day living.
I really try never to sell a stock when it is lower than it started out that day (since I could have received a better price a few hours earlier), and I try never to buy a stock on a day that is up for the opposite reason.
Thanks for everyone for reading! I love all comments, even the ones that call me names.....=)
Larry
Four Energy Bargains
Alex -- Everyone is entitled to their opinion. In terms of demand, do take into account that once people make the switch from a grain based diet to one that is more based on Protein, they don't tend to go back. It is unlikely that Potash will fall back down to that level because of this, but again, not all of one's picks can be correct.
Brother -- Agreed. This is why I tried to find stocks that were still going to be decent values, even with fairly strong hits to their "E"
Bid/Ask -- For some reason, I have never liked HAL. Perhaps it is because I think that if Obama wins, he will open an investigation into some of their Iraq dealings.....Otherwise... it could have easily been on the list....
Five Reasons RIMM Will Continue to Fall
I agree that there will be some margin compression. However, your argument doesn't factor in that RIM doesn't play in the low-end commodity handsets that are selling large in Emerging markets. This is the cause of much of Nokia's lower margins. RIM also has a significant high margin revenue from the Carriers as a "Royalty" for using their BES service. This is huge margin.....
As well, I have heard this open Architecture argument for years. I used to be a Carrier Sales Manager, and we were concerned years ago that RIM was taking up too much of this market, almost a Monopoly status. We tried to push other technologies (Visto, Good, Microsoft Exchange, etc). While they all had some functionality, none of them could match the slickness, security and reliability of the BES/BlackBerry combination. Even when companies tried to use the RIM software on their devices, such as Palm and CE, it never proved to be as reliable.
I am long on RIM, having just bought some this week. Are you sure that you are not Short?
Diageo Earnings Confirm the Long Case for Investors
Great long term buy, as it plays some very important trends (Emerging markets moving up the "drinking" scale, the move towards finer Spirits by Developed Nation's "Baby-boomers&quo... and the spike in Guiness sales thanks to the rise in disposable income in Africa).
Cheers
Larry
10-Year TIPS: An Investor's Benchmark
When To 'Believe the Hype' of a New Product
I wanted to reinforce the fact that I am ABSOLUTELY NOT criticizing Apple. Their ability to create Buzz, Hype or excitement (however you wished to call it) is one of the incredible reasons for their success. While there may be some great technology to their products, it isn't the technology that makes people line up for hours.....
This implies whether they are actually intentionally creating the buzz/hype/excitement themselves or whether it is just the media (I found your comment on the iToaster funny, by the way). I listened to a great interview with an Analyst on Bloomberg where he referred to Apple as the "Media-Masters&qu... Creating hype for your product is not a negative thing on its own, it is only negative if you constantly develop products that do not live up to such hype. Apple is not one of those companies. The iPod is a fabulous piece of technology, as is the Mac product line (I own about 5 or 6 Apple devices in my house, thanks to my wife and child.). Haven't tried the iPhone, so I can't comment there.
The purpose of the article was to touch on the idea about how Investors can play "hype" to their advantage.
Again, many thanks for taking the time to read my article, and for your comments.
Cheers and thanks
Larry
When To 'Believe the Hype' of a New Product
To reiterate what I said earlier, my point wasn't to focus in on Apple, only to use them as an example. It just seems that when you use the word "Apple" in your work, people disregard everything else and get defensive.
Thanks for taking the time to read and to comment!
Larry
When To 'Believe the Hype' of a New Product
I know of a stronger challenge in Canada, with Comwave's main product (like Cisco, also a VoIP product), where it dragged out for much longer and was much more of a threat to Apple's launch of the iPhone. The Cisco one seemed to be settled quickly, as I recall.
Doubt that was an intentional part of Apple's plan, but I am sure that they enjoyed the free press!
I just wanted to point out that the purpose of the article was not to slam Apple......I think they did a miraculous job, in fact, and I say so in the article. People seem to become extremely defensive about this company when they sense (incorrectly in this case, I might add) that someone may be saying something bad against it. The purpose of the article was to examine whether product (and more importantly, Sales and Earnings from the product) live up to the hype and how investors might gain for it. It wasn't meant to be a forum on Apple, but it appears that it may have become so...
I guess like Apple's legal challenges, it doesn't matter why people read, as long as they read....=)
Larry
When To 'Believe the Hype' of a New Product
Interesting that you say that Apple did nothing.....why is it that they pre-announced the product months in advance of launch? Why is it that they gave pictures, brochures, marketing material, FAQ answers to the carriers months before they launched (I know, as I have contacts at AT&T and Rogers who have them)? Everyone knew exactly what the iPhone was about long before it ever hit the stores.....that is EXACTLY what pre-launch hype is.
I encourage you to check out this article:
www.nielsenbuzzmetrics...
It shows:
- Apple informed the world of the iPhone in January 2007, despite the fact that it was launching in June 2007
- Quote from this web page, "“Apple’s iPhone is riding an unprecedented wave of pre-launch conversation and expectations are mounting,” said John Latona, Vice President of Client Services, Consumer Technology, at Nielsen BuzzMetrics. “Starting next week, the nature of the conversation will shift to very explicit and descriptive commentary about actual experiences with the product, and this will have a huge impact on ongoing trial, advocacy and sales.”
- Stats from the same web page: Traffic to the official corporate site, apple.com, spiked following the iPhone announcement. According to Nielsen//NetRatings, the iPhone section of the site had 1.79+ million unique visitors in January 2007 and the keyword “iPhone” was searched 870,000 times. Consumers continued to visit the site during February and March frequently, with more than 980,000 unique visitors per month, with a slight decline during April (almost 637,000 unique visitors). Web traffic to the site increased again during May with more than 701,000 unique visitors a month prior to release.
Maybe Apple didn't fully intend to have this kind of publicity, but you can't honestly tell me that this product didn't launch with perhaps the biggest hype of any new product in recent memory?
Cheers
Larry