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    • Mon Jul 7th 11:56 AM
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      Crude Oil Seeks Iranian Black Swan
      An attack an Iran would not be constituted as a Black Swan event. Although highly impactful and having the trait of being able to explained after the fact, it is not highly improbable.

      You don't know Black Swans are coming. This is a good example of a gray swan.
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    • Fri Jun 27th 09:06 AM
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      Adventures in Technical Analysis, Jim Cramer Edition
      Dear Francis Schutte,

      I think that your position with the IFTA is impressive.

      However, I don't see how you refuted my argument about randomness. How is someone supposed to know what they are looking at if it is simply not there?
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    • Thu Jun 26th 13:24 PM
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      Adventures in Technical Analysis, Jim Cramer Edition
      There are no rules, simply random activity.

      How often are your "patterns" reliable, even if used in conjunction with other information?

      If you've been lucky, you'll give me a high percentage.

      If you haven't been lucky, you won't give me a percentage.

      Both TA and FA simply cannot be reliable due to the randomness of events.

      If you are trading stock X using TA or FA, or both, and you make an investment decision based on that information, and a company in that industry releases bad earnings data (or 9/11 happens), that data you are making decisions off of becomes less, or completely not, useful. How could an analyst, or any type of analysis, have taken things like those into account?


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