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    • Thu Aug 14th 09:25 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Short Update on My Four Short Ideas
      you are a little off in looking back -

      1) You stated book value would be less than $1.44 a share -

      "CRZ reported equity of $132.6 million as of 3/31/08, or $5.33 a share. As of 6/30/08, the probable mark-to-market of the MBS securities portfolio will reduce that to $61.6 million, or $2.48/share. Another $2.5 million write-down on the defaulted condo loan in Portland would nick another 10 cents a share off book value, to $2.38/share. If the value of the CRE portfolio is just 10% lower than CRZ’s Q1 estimate, as I think it is, book value falls to a mere $1.44. Mark to market those high-risk junior loans (probably by 20% or more to reflect current conditions), and we are well under $1 a share."

      2) You state in this article that you previously said they would pay no dividend or have to drastically cut the dividend - in actuality you stated

      "That swing has already happened, or very nearly so. I do not even think the company will be able to pay its next quarterly dividend [Editor's note: The author refers to the September 2008 dividend]. The market largely agrees, which is why stated dividend, if paid, would result in the stock having a yield of 34%. If the company does not announce that it is suspending its next dividend, its creditors will probably either issue margin calls or file a suit against the company to enjoin the dividend payment."

      I closed my position on CRZ (having sold Aug 2.50 puts immediately after your article helped tank the stock) so have no vested interest at this time. However, I think before you pat yourself on the back too hard you should at least stick with the facts of what you said.
      View article »
    • Sat Jul 5th 20:26 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Crystal River’s Q2 Write-Downs Could Bankrupt the Company
      I find it amusing that you post after the fact on the financials, like you have made a great call. CRZ is down, no question. Whether they are down for count will be seen.

      I think you are wrong, and have misread and misrepresented much of the current status of CRZ. I don't think you have done this purposely, but I think you are trying to be self serving.

      Your credentials for education are impressive. However, you have no proven credentials in investing. You do have a blog that you started in February, and have written three articles on Seeking Alpha.

      I post alot on the boards also, and have large positions in preferred shares and trade some of the common. I do not have a position in CRZ - yet. I did just sell puts last week as I think they have significantly strengthened their position with reduction of debt and have the ability to hunker down for awhile.

      I read where you think they are paying the dividend to get money to shareholders before they go under? I believe as an attorney that you know this would be fraud.
      View article »
    • Sat May 3rd 15:16 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      REITs: Still Some Bargains Out There
      Why are you assuming a dividend cut on RAIT when management is not? I would be very interested in any data you have that backs this assumption, or how you have arrived at your targets with reasoning.
      View article »