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Latest Comments53 Comments
The Pickens Plan Changes Its Strategy
Synthesis of liquid fuels (diesel) involves a thermal efficiency of about 50%. That means it takes about 2 MM BTU of CNG to produce one MM BTU of diesel! This chips off significantly the advasntage for a tacit objective of putting out less carbon to contain global warming. The author should not forget that rather than the volume of the tank it is the weight of the fuel and its BTU density which determines the overall performance (mpg) of the engine, if other issues such as engine burn characteristics, etc remain equivalent for the two fuels. BTU to BTU diesel is much more weighty than CNG!
There is an economic dimension to the issues I have raised. The fuel material input costs, i.e. the cost of natural gas input for diesel, is double that of CNG as a direct firing fuel (low synthesis efficiency!). In other words, the present $6 per MM BTU CNG becomes a $12 per MMBTU input cost for diesel. Add to this plant capital, depreciation, interest on capital borrowed, ROR, etc, you have $16 per MM BTU cost. Quite a lot more than $6 CNG!!! A massive shift to the use of this kind of diesel will roil gas markets, bring gas supply concerns, etc, etc and etc. MY guess is there would be no advantage vis-a-vis oil, especially if OPEC or other oil intersts turn themselves as upsetters of the apple-cart. Competition!!!
There are other profound issues which I will leave you, MR. Pickens and others to think and browse about. But there are there. Without good thinking we may go down a sticky wcket again. Please! Us, little people, and OBAMA does not need another mess on our hands through shoddy thinking and slickness. Please continue the good work with my blessings! And, if you have the energy to do it check it out with me. I am "retired", though, but would not mind giving my inputs
Is India's Economy About To Blast Off?
Infrastructure growth can lift the economies of both countries significantly to avoid a deeper slide, and both can and will marshall plans to do so. However, the pace for execution of infrastructure investment are significantly different for each ofthese countries. India's processes are cumbersome and extrtemely prone to delay or sabotage, mainly due to a corrupt bureacracy and resultant endless scope for negotiation, endless protestr and review on procedural grounds, and loften resulting litigation. Due to the potential for huge leakage into the pocketrs of vested interests there is also considerable bickering and infighting beteween bureacrats, politicians on control and execution issuews before a project can get started.
The Indian economy is always going to be handicapped by these issues, unless India gets into the habit of setting up a government of the people, by the people and of the people. For many of us NRI's it is a source of shame and disenchantment to find that India's officials and politicians are determined to hold the people hostage to their own weaknesses and personal agendas. China has a a considerably better record in this respect. That is why China will always be ahead in forseeable future with regard to pace and rate of growth, despite the global constraints at times on its economy.
India Battered by Global Storm
The Indian (and also Brazil, perhaps) industrial growth story is still preserved though at a slower pace while that of China faces a significant slowdown or marginal decline. China's economy is much more meshed in with the larger global economy due to heavy export dependency, while India's is less so. The effect of commodities is larger on the Indian economy since it weighs in at heavier relative level in its consumption and much of it based on imports. Thus the effects of commoditities recently on Indian inflation based on this dependency has been much larger. Perhaps, with the fall in commodity prices globally there soon woul be significant relief from inflation for the Indian economy.
India is also likely to see significant pick-up in investments after the elections expected soon in development of its infrastructure which has been subpar in recent years. The authror's suggestion of the likelihood of the preservatgion of India's growth story is plausible. I would bet that it is highly likely. The one area of concern is in India's poor track record for development and growth of its farm sector and agri-industry.
Citi Examines Its Carrots and Sticks
What's Brewing Between China, Vale, and the Baltic Dry Index
Why Have Things Gone So Wrong?
To many laymen one of the greatest failures with regard to transparency in the last several years has been the way in which disclosures were made before the floating of these toxic securities which have been at the root of our problems now. There is the story how Paulson's former firm (Goldman) packaged some of the most toxic securities. The disclosure document was about 400 pages long. It disclosed everything about the packaged securities (SIV), including the toxicity of some of the parts of the package. However, someone had to have a PhD in finance and several other disciplines to understand the full possible impact, and more imprortant, weeks of time to find out what is wrong or horriblle about the package.
Whose fault was this that something like this can happen or be allowed?
Of course, Goldman first, perhaps. Why? They weren't thinking about anyone else., except themselves! Legally? Certainly, thye were not at fault at all. Those who helped peddle these to their ignorant and unsuspecting clients are seriously at fault. No doubt of it. Here the failure had been telling and outrageous.
How about the SEC, or the monitoring and permitting agency which should either require better concise disclosure or not allowed these securities to be floated since some of them were worthless or highly risky. Some were also unrelated to the more acceptable securities in the packaged SIV. Certaiinly, this or other Fed agencies connnected with the permitting of these securities were derelict. Here definitely was a problem, and from the layman's point of view, a serious on e. Agencies which were asleep or forgot their responsibilities in regard to transparency and, perhaps, even also on appropriateness. It will require a lot of legal, ethical, moral, as well as regulatory experience to browse on these failures to serve as leeson for the future. However, will we see this reviewed in a meaningful way. It is doubtful!
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets, More
Read It and Weep for the USA
Hedge Funds May Have Gone Too Far
Canadian Natural Resources: Horizon Slippage
Dow Chemical's Next Move
Oil Spreads Widen - and Narrow
However, gas supply infrastructure development may prove to be costly unless the Government formulates a policy to "bless" gas engines in vehicles on a long term basis as one of the vehicle options. Otherwise, there will be very little enthusiasm for deploying capital for infrastructure development and investment.
Fannie/Freddie Bailout 'Disastrous Fiasco'
It is not the bailout per se that is bad, but, as Cheng said, it is the manner it has been formulated and then executed. Unfortunately, no one has gone to jail yet for all this mess. Perhaps, no one will have to, save some lowly broker or mortgage banker in the distant future.
Tata Motors Makes Its Move Out of Singur
This is a major accomplishment on your part worth a proclamation ackowledging you as one of the few persons deserving the genuine appelation of being an India expert. However, you only got about 80% of the facts straightened out or listed. It is no mean accomplishment though. Hope you did not have someone fill in the blanks too much for yourself on this. Even then it serves the purpose.
Now you know why many of us highbrows and not so highbrows upward aspiring"Indians&... have been over here as your hiumble guests or second class citizens/residents. The place back "home" is impossible to navigate for the most of us (who still call themselves NRIs, or non-resident Indians). Even with our US earned PhDs or business school credentials from the ivy leagues and other prestigious schools, we would just be babes in the woods in the urban jungles of India.
The real present India is frightening to many of us. This India which has been fashioned by the Nehru and his decendants (the Gandhis including the the Italian import} will perhaps always be an elusive dream --at least for our life-times. India needs a lot of "change" before the corrupt establisments spawning over its land, especially of the Left variety and that present in its GOP, are permanently dethroned and uprooted. But when will that day dawn when the huddeld masses of India get their freedom from the parasitic establishments?
Somehow the foreign markets have more faith in India's future than many of us descendants from the land of the Buddha, Rama and Gandhi. Hope the market is right, and we are wrong!
Tatas, the local Government, Mamamta and the Central Government are all grand-standing. Time and suffering are cheap commodities in India. The land problem may be solved this weekend or any day soon. At the end of the day most of the parties to the dispute, thriving under Big Brother's control of the Indian scene, do not want the car project to leave Bengal. Even so, I would still not buy TTM at this price level yet!
Rescuing Frannie