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Latest Comments110 Comments
Ben Stein Watch: November 30, 2008
Is Bankrupt Britain Trending Towards Hyper-Inflation?
The title of this article is:
Is Bankrupt Britain Trending Towards Hyper-Inflation?
Then 3/4 of the way thru after all the gloom and doom the author states:
Britain is not bankrupt and not likely to go bankrupt in the immediate future.
I think a more appropriate article would be to:
Substitute the words: "The United States of America" everywhere you have the word "Britain" written down.
And for those that think the dollar rally is a fight to "quality" and reflects real value: Grow up and stop rationalizing.
The dollar rally is a flight to "quantity" not quality. Worldwide
de-leveraging will do that.
Just ask yourselves: Who was the worlds biggest debtor nation "prior" to this entire crisis? Who is going to be flat on their back, under the crushing load of debt owed once the world comes out of this crisis?
A debt mind you that is going to be more than all of the other countries of the world combined.
Food for thought. Invest accordingly.
Oh What a Tangled Web We Weave in Market Headlines
Based on the S & P 500 chart you provided- it is clear you can see the bull market that started in 1982 on the left hand side of the chart. It followed a more "normal" pattern of a bull market with the averages returning about 10% a year- pre Fed/govt manipulation of the markets.
Then in 1995 you can see where the first bubble began to form.
It collapsed in 2000, then in 2003 the credit bubble took over and we inflated again until 2007.
Though I have no idea where things will "end up", one thing that is promising: If you look at the continuing trend from 1982, the S & P only has to fall until 700 to truly wipe out all the stock market excesses and bring us back into the with the ultra long term trendline.
Now the bad news, as you stated, anything can happen and we could break that trend line and fall to who knows where.
I am "hoping" that all in all we fall to that continuation trendline and simply get back on track per the 1982 line.
We will see.
The Downfall of Keynesian Economics and the U.S. (Part 3 of 3)
Agreed.
Other than PM, the other 9 stocks that make up my portfolio are non US listed stocks or REITS, that to this day, have been reporting great earnings and are not affected by the credit crisis or the global slowdown. 2 of those stocks are somewhat commodity related names that are down right now, however will bounce back big time once the rest of the world is back on it's feet.
During that time the US will be struggling to even get back on its knees with all its debt and failed consumerism policies of growth.
Over the coming decade the rest of the world, or atleast those parts of the world that have room to grow multifold, are going to realize that they never needed the small 300 millions american consumers to fund their growth. Their own populations of "billions" are going to do it for them.
I love our country, and I am an American, but we as a country have dug our own grave and now we have to lay it in.
The Downfall of Keynesian Economics and the U.S. (Part 3 of 3)
The dollar going up is NOT a flight to "quality".
The dollar going up IS a flight to "quantity"
Over the coming 5 years look for the dollar to make new lows. Most other countries have had it with our phony, consumerism economy, and they are now verbally letting us know this. The rest of the world will be in no rush to finance america's debt in the coming years and are starting to realize that they will never be paid back for all the money they lent us in the past.
Other than a very few select US stocks that make most of their money overseas, the average investor should not own US stocks. They should own foreign stocks that trade directly on the exchanges in which the companies belong, for both capital appreciation, income, and currency appreciation against what will be a falling dollar.
Don't expect this to happen right away.
These things take time.
It is going to happen.
Market Stress Leads to More Smoking, Switch to Cheaper Brands
Nah. Its more fun to lump everyong in one spot. That way its meets their hidden agenda to bash companies they might not like or have some other position in.
Is Buy-and-Hold Dead? Hardly
However, it cannot be done as a stand alone investment strategy. One must hedge, also depending on where you invest, there are currency hedges that must be put on.
Almost any market outside the US (well maybe except for Europe) offers such great opportunity, especially Canada (one of the most fiscally responsible country's out there)
The Stock Market Is Not the U.S. Economy
In the "youtube" video that was posted, you can clearly see how someone like Peter Schiff was early, yet dead right, and people such as Arthur Laffer were dead wrong. What is worse, people like Laffer are still paraded around on CNBC as if they have any credibility at all left. People such as Laffer, Luskin, Kudlow, Farrell, etc, are all bold faced liars who get away with it because we the public, allow them "zero accountability".
My repeat post:
Invest your money in companies outside the US. Do not be fooled by all the lies you hear about how "the US is going to lead the world" in the future.
For now, we are done. Our government is clueless, our business leaders were crooks (ok well not all of them but unfortunately in the areas ie: banking, lending, rating, etc) and the US "prior" to all this mess was already the worlds biggest debtor nation.
Regardless of other countries and economies reflating right along with us, and using their reserves, many countries (India, China, other emerging countries) actually make stuff, unlike the US where we are expert, now broke, consumers.
The favorite bull argument that: "China, India, etc, need the US consumer to survive" will be proven wrong over the next 5-10 years, as their own citizens become consumers of their own goods, thus negating any effects of lost US consumption. These things take time, and time is not what the financial media wants you to think about.
Own stocks in Canada, Singapore, etc, that trade directly on those exchanges. Over the next 50 years, the US dollar will continue to decline, and economies outside the US will grow and grow.
You will get the double boost of share return plus currency return. Again, these things take time, and the financial media wants to keep you focused on "Mad Money" and "Fast Money". Not real money.
Please google the video "money as debt" and take 47 mins out of your life to learn how banking really works, how money is really created, and why this debt/credit crisis has a long way to go in the US.
The rest of the world will come out of it long before the US, for like I said, we were already the worlds biggest debtor nation prior to this crisis, both on a governmental level and a consumer level.
The Stock Market Is Not the U.S. Economy
Feel free to tune into this channel: CNBC
Where optimism never left. Where they tell you how to protect your money and survive the bear market, "after" the market has fallen 30% from the high.
Where "investing" goes out the window and they substitute "gambling" knowing how weak, desperate, (and broke) americans are. Hence "Fast Money, "Mad Money", million dollar portfolio challenges.
Where shills come on and call yet another "bottom" after calling 10 bottoms already from DOW 14K 13K 12K 11K 10K 9K 8K...
Ofcourse the shill fund managers get paid by foolish americans who are happy to pay "asset gatherers" instead of what are supposed to be "asset managers" I think Bill Miller is still hiding on his 85 ft yacht counting his hundred million he stole from his fund holders, who are now back at 1998 levels.
The Stock Market Is Not the U.S. Economy
For now, we are done. Our government is clueless, our business leaders were crooks (ok well not all of them but unfortunately in the areas ie: banking, lending, rating, etc) and the US "prior" to all this mess was already the worlds biggest debtor nation.
Regardless of other countries and economies reflating right along with us, and using their reserves, many countries (India, China, other emerging countries) actually make stuff, unlike the US where we are expert, now broke, consumers.
The favorite bull argument that: "China, India, etc, need the US consumer to survive" will be proven wrong over the next 5-10 years, as their own citizens become consumers of their own goods, thus negating any effects of lost US consumption. These things take time, and time is not what the financial media wants you to think about.
Own stocks in Canada, Singapore, etc, that trade directly on those exchanges. Over the next 50 years, the US dollar will continue to decline, and economies outside the US will grow and grow.
You will get the double boost of share return plus currency return. Again, these things take time, and the financial media wants to keep you focused on "Mad Money" and "Fast Money". Not real money.
Please google the video "money as debt" and take 47 mins out of your life to learn how banking really works, how money is really created, and why this debt/credit crisis has a long way to go in the US.
The rest of the world will come out of it long before the US, for like I said, we were already the worlds biggest debtor nation prior to this crisis, both on a governmental level and a consumer level.
Is Jim Cramer Right? Is Apple Really a Market Barometer?
The average american: An over indebted soul, who confused home equity extraction and credit card debt with real liquid net worth.
The USA: a country where we measure our success on how many I-pods we own, how many tattoos, and piercings we get, how much jail time we rack up as a badge of honor, and how many different reality shows we can try out for, instead of doing a hard days work.
We have evolved into a pathetic "reactive" nation of souls who need to be told what to think and what to believe, instead of a the "proactive" nation of the past, that would never stand for most of the stupidity that we now call "normal" in this country.
The Rise and Rise of the U.S. Dollar
Not a flight to "quality", but a flight to "quantity".
The U.S. Banking System is Effectively Insolvent
video.google.com/video...
For anyone who thinks that subprime is the reason we are in this mess, this video will dispel that. By the time you finish watching it, you will completely come to understand who really owns and runs our country and why this crisis was decades in the making.
Bill Gross Will Work For Free, Kind Of
Why is it that Gross ran, not walked, up to offer his services for managing the bailout funds?
Hmmm. How much toxic crap does Pimco own right now and how much are they trying to protect themselves and make money for themselves off of this?
Anyone?
Peak Insanity: SEC Plans to Temporarily Ban Short-Selling
Wall Street, The Elitists of this country, The Banks 1
Average Americans 0
All this communism will not be felt until 30 years from now.
My children and their children, are going to be paying for the inaction now of a scared general public who are to afraid to stand up and take back this country from the select few.
We can rationalize any way we want right at this moment, but by God there will be a price to pay for all this.