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Latest Comments17 Comments
Why Airline Stocks Are So Often Bad Investments
Despite anticipated demand softness, industry RASM is expected to surge
starting in September, lifting estimates along the way. While airline shares tend
to seasonally find traction starting in November or December, we suggest
positions instead be established before the release of September demand data.
• All Eyes on RASM – With fuel prices at manageable levels, demand trends
are expected to retake center stage. Starting in September, we expect system
mainline RASM to exceed 10%, remaining there until well into 2009.
• We Are Boosting Our RASM Estimates – On an ATA basis, our Q3
system mainline 5% rises to 7%, Q4 10% to 11%, and 2009 8% to 9.5%.
• Our Forecasts Are Actually Conservative – Should August~December
sequential trends mirror those of 2007, Q4 RASM would exceed 15%. But
we’re modeling just 11%, reflective of anticipated demand softness. Put
differently, supply is exiting the industry at a far greater rate than
demand has ever softened, ex-9/11.
• Our 2009 Forecast Is Similarly Diffident, Yet Shares Look Cheap – On
an ATA basis, 2008 RASM is expected +7% on a 2% decline in capacity. For
2009, we anticipate 9.5% RASM on a 6% decline in capacity. Yet despite
this implied demand erosion, shares in many names are trading at or below
5x EV/EBITDAR.
Why Airline Stocks Are So Often Bad Investments
Monster Rally Produces Pricey Valuation for Fuel Systems Solutions
Monster Rally Produces Pricey Valuation for Fuel Systems Solutions
Profiting from the Pickens Plan: FAN, Clean Fuels, Fuel Systems
Profiting from the Pickens Plan: FAN, Clean Fuels, Fuel Systems
A Visible Path To $600 Million In Revenue And $2.40 In EPS
Even Without U.S. Adoption – With the leading market position, a
large number of key OEM and distributor relationships, and a big
macro tailwind, we believe Fuel Systems can become a $600 million
revenue company generating $78+ million of EBITDA and EPS of
roughly $2.40 even without U.S. adoption.
CALIFORNIA BALLOT INITIATIVE COULD BE A CATALYST
In addition to overall favorable macro conditions for alternative fuels, we
think a pending ballot initiative in California could be a significant catalyst
for alternative fueled vehicles and would benefit Fuel Systems. The
California Renewable Energy Clean Alternative Fuel Act will be on the
November 2008 ballot and would invest $5 billion in projects and incentive
programs to promote renewable energy and alternative fueled vehicles. This
initiative would allocate $2.9 billion (58% of the total) to cash incentives for
the purchase alternative fueled vehicles, as detailed in figure 6, and $550
million to develop and qualify alternative fueled vehicles.
2 Ways to Invest in Pickens’ Wind Power Plan
The Holy Grail: U.S. Adoption Of Natural Gas Fueled Vehicles
– The number of gaseous fueled vehicles has been growing at a 23%
rate since 2000, but it’s not obvious to U.S. investors because the
growth has been almost entirely outside of this country. However,
we believe the U.S. is now at the tipping point of increased adoption
of gaseous fueled vehicles driven by high oil prices, political desires
for a domestic energy solution, and increasingly stringent worldwide
emission standards. We believe a number of catalysts are on the
horizon to spur the U.S. market, the largest being a ballot initiative
this November in California that would create a $2.9 billion fund to
provide incentives for alternative fueled vehicles.
Fuel Systems Solutions: Time to Take Profits
– The number of gaseous fueled vehicles has been growing at a 23%
rate since 2000, but it’s not obvious to U.S. investors because the
growth has been almost entirely outside of this country. However,
we believe the U.S. is now at the tipping point of increased adoption
of gaseous fueled vehicles driven by high oil prices, political desires
for a domestic energy solution, and increasingly stringent worldwide
emission standards. We believe a number of catalysts are on the
horizon to spur the U.S. market, the largest being a ballot initiative
this November in California that would create a $2.9 billion fund to
provide incentives for alternative fueled vehicles.
General Discussion on FSYS
Craig-Hallum excerpts:
The Holy Grail: U.S. Adoption Of Natural Gas Fueled Vehicles
– The number of gaseous fueled vehicles has been growing at a 23%
rate since 2000, but it’s not obvious to U.S. investors because the
growth has been almost entirely outside of this country. However,
we believe the U.S. is now at the tipping point of increased adoption
of gaseous fueled vehicles driven by high oil prices, political desires
for a domestic energy solution, and increasingly stringent worldwide
emission standards. We believe a number of catalysts are on the
horizon to spur the U.S. market, the largest being a ballot initiative
this November in California that would create a $2.9 billion fund to
provide incentives for alternative fueled vehicles.
Solar Stocks Show Signs of Life
Beware of the Solar Stock Fad
Secondly, Solar energy is abundant energy for the next 2 million years and companies that can capture this energy efficiently will be worth 10x XOM and create a vast new lifesyle and industry that will enhance our productivity and heath for a very long time...and Finally, I believe Solar energy is the only way out of our cuurent deteirotating enviromental catastrophe.....
As I understand, Silicon Valley is now heavily investing in the future of Solar Energy with the idea that solar efficiency and now being mirrored into Moore's Law....
Fact is fact, my utility and gasoline bills continue to go up and up..we need to do something and something big....sooner rather than later
The Effect of Internet Video: Market or Investor Discontinuity?
BSQUARE Could Fall Further (BSQR)
It's NetSol Technologies' Time to Shine
CALABASAS, CA -- (MARKET WIRE) -- 02/12/07 --
NetSol Technologies Inc. ("NetSol") (NASDAQ: NTWK), a multinational provider
of enterprise software and IT services to the financial services industry,
today announced financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2007,
ending December 31, 2006.
Second Quarter FY 2007 Consolidated Financial Highlights
-- Revenues increased 60% to $7.2 million
-- Operating income rose 36% to $375 thousand
-- GAAP EPS was ($0.27) due to one-time, non-cash charge of $4.3 million
relating to the financing for the acquisition of McCue Systems
-- EBITDA was $527 thousand, or $0.03 per basic and diluted share,
excluding the one-time non-cash charge
-- Pro forma EPS was ($0.02) per basic and diluted share, excluding the
one-time non-cash charge
NetSol Technologies, Inc. reported consolidated revenues of $7.2 millionfor
the second quarter of fiscal year 2007, a 60% increase compared to the $4.5
million in revenues reported for the same period in fiscal year 2006.
Consolidated gross profit for the second quarter was approximately $3.6
million, or 50%.
Net loss for the second quarter of fiscal year 2007 was approximately $4.6
million, or a loss of $0.27 per basic and diluted earnings per share,
whichcompares to net income of $125 thousand, or $0.01 per basic and diluted
earnings per share, reported in the second quarter of fiscal year 2006. The
Company recorded a one-time, non-cash charge of $4.3 million relating to the
financing for the acquisition of McCue Systems in June 2006. Excluding this
one-time charge, NetSol would have reported EBITDA of $527 thousand, or $0.03
per basic and diluted share, and a net loss of $375 thousand, or a loss of
$0.02 per basic and diluted share, for the second quarter of fiscal 2007.
Najeeb Ghauri, chairman and CEO, commented, "NetSol recorded strong
revenuegrowth in the second quarter of fiscal 2007, driven by our ability to
closecontracts in the Asia Pacific and European markets. We also continued to
make progress in the North American market, as the integration of McCue Systems
proceeds according to plan. In addition, we are seeing strong growth in the
Pakistan market, as evidenced by several, important non-traditional NetSol
projects initiated with both the federal and Punjab governments.
"Our second quarter results also reflect a one-time, non-cash charge relating
to the acquisition of McCue Systems in June 2006. With this charge, all costs
relating to that acquisition are expensed and behind us, so we may now move
forward aggressively in the North American market. We expect to have that
division substantially integrated into the NetSol organization and leveraging
our superior offshore capabilities by the end of this fiscal year."
Mr. Ghauri concluded, "Historically, NetSol posts its strongest results in the
second half of the fiscal year. Our pipeline of orders for commercial finance
products, particularly in the Chinese market and in Europe, indicate that this
trend will continue. Moreover, our pipeline of business in Pakistan is
stronger than ever. As a result, we continue to believe we can deliver
revenues of approximately $30 million and improved operating profitability for
fiscal year 2007."
Second Quarter Business Highlights
Asia-Pacific (APAC) Division
-- Signed two new multi-million dollar contracts for LeaseSoft with
global, blue chip brand names in the Captive Finance sector - one in
Australia, the other in China;
-- Continued to expand pipe line of opportunities in Australia, Thailand,
New Zealand and China; and
-- Expanded client and market reach beyond traditional leasing market
into local Pakistan market;
-- Successful implementation of Motor Transport Management Information
System (or MTMIS) in Lahore, with an additional 28 districts to go live by
the end of calendar year 2007.
Europe/Middle East (EMEA) Division-- Completed major client projects on time
and on budget to deliver
record UK service revenue - one significant project was with Investec Asset
Finance;
-- Introduced new products to support front and middle office operations
of leasing companies, providing end-to-end contract management - three
system implementations are currently scheduled or in progress, with
significant interest generated; and
-- Recorded the first sale of the division's newest software offering,
LeaseSoft Evolve, to broker Kennet Equipment Leasing for the management of
its own equipment leasing portfolio.
North America Division-- Delivered LeasePak 6.0, the largest and most
comprehensive release of
the product to date - receiving excellent customer response and reviews;
-- Initiated rollout of the IT Services line of business to the US
commercial finance technology sector, and
-- Integration of McCue Systems into NetSol Technologies is on track and
progressing well - with continued success in the leveraging of offshore
resources, improved internal resource utilization and effective marketing
efforts.
Ciphergen: Partnering with the Big Boys