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Latest Comments35 Comments
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
Mr. Wilberforce,
Your perception is based on products from the 1970s. I had very bad luck with 70s GM & Fords [even worse]. Since 1983, however, GM reduced the quality gap every single year. By the 21 century, they PASSED Mercedes, Toyota and Honda in quantifiable problems. Only the JD Power first impressions survey has Lexus higher - And people, being suggestable, will never admit that they paid $50,000 for a poor-handling Camry [ES350.] But every long-term study places GM first in measurable quality. Polk has proven through registrations that all GM brands outlast the average.
This revelational news that GMs have not been junk for the past decade may be a blow to you. Therefore, I will not tell you the news about Ford's most recent model year statistics -- you might gasp so hard that you accidentally suck in the obituaries you were just reading.
I am sure that you did many bad things in the 1970s, too. But this is 2008.
The Truth About Bailouts
> The only large industrial nation not going through a recesssion right
> now is China. IIRC, they are a Communist nation and mostly centrally
> planned. China has lifted over 400 million people out of poverty
> in the last 20 years. Why hasn't it failed if marxism is unstainable?
Easy: they have totally embraced capitalism powered by slave labor. It is extremely similar to the rise of Rome. The aqueducts were not built in a worker's paradise, and neither was your Wii.
Centrally planned economies often work for a few decades before decay. If "being lifted from poverty" means living in a 10X10 dorm (slave quarters) with 10,000 other slaves, I choose the individual right to freely strive, save, and assume the risk of poverty.
Back to the topic: "If Washington bails out General Motors (GM), the funds will never be recovered. GM will simply burn through the bailout money and then be back for more." Quite a statement. Elegant in simplicity, supported by historic precedent, and poignant in its inevitability.
How to Save the U.S. Economy
Sorry to double-blog, but please read the Qur'an. You can have mine. Pay special attention to the 9th sura. The Qur'an specifically tells what to do with contracts & treaties made with infidels, and then what to do to the infidels themselves. I will not comment on religion further, since I mostly know Muslims, and this is financial. Obama's familiarity with Islam is a strength, but you don't have that familiarity. Our defenses need to be more like Israel, not more like France.
And, with better weapons, palladium demand could actually skyrocket.
How to Save the U.S. Economy
Mark Anthony, when George W was elected, did we get free oil from Norway? Did Clinton bring over Swedish minerals? I thought the only people who cared about the candidates' skin color were the media, who love to hate and divide for profit. Do you really expect "Africa" to send us their platinum because Obama is darker? Well, then, I'm flying over right now and requesting my share.
President Bush quintupled aid to African nations. I would say that increases ties to Africa, so where's the palladium?
I have posted many times for people to be polite, respectful, and stick to the fundamentals. But as a holder of PTM, PAL, and SWC, I keep following links to related stories. They are always the same six-thousand-word ads. It is like reading the same Motley Fool next Hidden Gem advert over and over and over and over. You promise riches and imply that there could never be a very LT drop in demand. Gues what: A very long-term drop in demand just started. People selling is not always "stock manipulation."
Also, President-Elect Obama is not African. He was born in Hawaii. He visited Kenya. I went to Brugge once. It didn't establish any ties.
BTW, Africa is a continent, not a country.
Irrational Stupidity
Municiple bonds are not as stable as you think. Many depend on revenue from tolls, ticket fees, and sales tax. If people can no longer mortgage their house to buy beer and go to the game, then flexible-revenue munis are damaged.
As a fiscal analyst/accountant for a state government, I learned that legislators apparently make revenue assumptions while on meth. I called my city administrator and mayor; they blew me off -- Guess who is laying off cops now. I publicly called out the chair of my state's Senate finance committee to explain a $493 million overspend. He said it was a suprise. (I no longer work for the state.) These officials stared at us blankly when we told them what was going to happen and said, "We'll issue more bonds to cover it." NOBODY IN GOVERNMENT BELIEVES THAT THEY ARE SPENDING REAL MONEY, AND THEY WILL NEVER STOP INFLATING GROWTH PROJECTIONS.
Responsible government spending means nothing when elections are at risk. Therefore, the state constitution will hold back $10B of debt as well as a sheet of toilet paper would.
You demean the author. Remember, Great Britain once had the largest economy on Earth. It collapsed pretty quickly. It had more industry and less debt than California.
Are California bonds safe? I don't know; ask the investors in Orange County bonds.
I would place my faith in a profit-driven enterprise before government buffoons. Yes, I own MET.PR.A and MET.PR.B, and yes, there is a risk.
3Q Earnings Review: Internet Content Stocks
Yet insiders have been buying since 2008 March. Maybe TZOO is going private. With a $66M market cap, would the CEO try? Would PCLN eat the crumbs? I would have sold, but E*Trade had a trading restriction that implied reorganization or acquisition. I am still waiting to see what that is all about...
Four Chinese Solar Stocks Under Threat from Pollution
Industrializing nations always have pollution, followed by a move toward cleaner skies. Chinese solar companies mostly sell to outside nations, so current pollution is a non-issue. By the time other nations are saturated with solar, it will be time for massive internal investment into cleaner skies. Since China get SO much power from coal, they will have an even more urgent push to solar.
Unfortunately, it will be an urgent push 10 years too late, but c'est la vie... The worst that can happen is that I quadruple down on CSIQ, TSL. JASO, YGE, LDK, STP, SPWRB, and retire later - but wealthier - than originally planned.
Three Reasons for Sirius Aggravation
...7 airbags, Tier III emissions, 5mph bumpers, side impact standards, stability control, ABS controllers, rollover protection, bigger wheels, etc, bring a subcompact over 3,000 lb.
If you want people to buy cars with Sirius, start importing Japanese Kei-class micro-trucks & micro-vans. Until that happens, I will drink sake and stare blankly at my 89.97% loss.
Infosys Shaky
We will not be the last to cancel the relationship with INFY.
Bust-Up, Not Bailout
Now the EPA is pondering pedestrian-friendly flattened facias, so that impacts from hitting a streetwalker spread the load out. A lower nose has been in testing for every car for better coefficient of drag & mileage. Now manufacturers may have to retool TWO different noses for every model, and every model with every engine & transmission combination will be crash-tested in each country by the IIHS and HTSA (or equivalent.) If you want to know why it takes ten years, ask your Congressman.
Your idea would be perfect if every single federal agency and Congress were placed on a 20-year moratorium on regulatory changes.
The only thing that needs to be busted up is some politician's nose... Maybe a striking union worker could do it, just for something to do.
Trading Obama: Solar Stocks, GM Debt, Ambac Calls, Lorillard and Goldman Puts
The job loss would actually be less with bankrutpcy; it would just be violently sudden. They are currently under contract with the UAW to hire and rehire unneeded workers, even on shuttered lines!
And the Midwest banks who made loans to a risky borrower should bear the same risk that I do. If they go under, the assets will be bought by a smarter bank.
My BGM dropped another 12.61%...
I see a lot of pointers in the bankruptcy direction.
I really, really hope you are right.
Trading Obama: Solar Stocks, GM Debt, Ambac Calls, Lorillard and Goldman Puts
The CO2 per BTU of naural gas is extremely low, since every carbon atom is conneced to at least one, and as many as 4, hydrogen atoms. It contains many times the energy of H2 without the drawbacks. It is the only rampable and fast-adjusting compliment/backup to solar and wind. I wish T. Boone Pickens would shut up so that I could buy in. But I have no money to do so because...
...I own BGM, similar to the XGM you recommend. If they got AAA credit rating, then I would be rich. But General Motors MUST accelerate UAW benefit changes, renegotiate debt, lay off, merge divisions, and close dealerships. Bankruptcy is the only way they can do what has to be done. I think the Obama administration will be forced against its will to allow bankruptcy. I hope for my children's Christmas that you are right, and that I am wrong.
And I thought they were distressed when I bought them!
Trading Obama: Solar Stocks, GM Debt, Ambac Calls, Lorillard and Goldman Puts
"Solar is most directly in competition with coal and natural gas, both dirty power sources on which we will soon see new taxes and regulations."...
WHA, WHA, WHAAATTTT??? Coal is filthy, but in a closed, filtered, recycled system, there is very little pollution. The USA and China have tons of the stuff, rely on it for the grid; and taxing it would jack up utility rates. Political suicide rarely happens on that grand of a scale.
Natural Gas is one of the cleanest-burning substances on the planet. You can direct-drive a turbine with an almost 100% clean burn, then use a heat exchanger to steam-drive another turbine with a closed-loop system. N.Gas plants fire up and shut down quick enough to compensate for surges and drops from the solar & wind power supplies. There are no toxic wastes from N.Gas as there are from solar production. You get it from the local dump, thus reducing methane, which is a FAR, FAR more potent greenhouse gas than CO2. There is no soot, birth-to-finish CO2 production is a fraction that of pure hydrogen, it uses no farmland, we and our UAE allies have tons of it... I could go on. That sounds better than:
..." the Washington Post reported that Chinese solar-silicon companies were dumping toxic waste. Luoyang Zhonggui High-Technology Co., which was cited by the Post as a prime example, sells silicon to Suntech Power..."
The premise of solar competing with dirty fuel is not quite accurate. I am very long solar, but only because of business reality, a belief in multi-tiered power supplies, and hope.
Science, however, supports CLEAN-burning natural gas and modern coal plants for a couple more decades.
Also, the premise of buying STP because they are American is not quite accurate. They are headquarted at 17-6 Changjiang S. Rd., New District 214028, Wuxi, Jiangsu Province, China.
I do like the rest of the piece, though.
What to Do Now With Solar Energy Stocks
Read the following:
By Fang Yan and Pily Zhou
SHANGHAI, Oct 24 (Reuters) - ...LDK Solar Co Ltd (LDK) has no plans to raise funds from the capital markets for the next two years as it has enough cashflow to fund an expansion which would more double its capacity by 2010, its chief executive said on Friday...The company... plans to expand capacity to 2.2 gigawatts at the end of next year and to 3.2 gigawatts at the end of 2010...founder Peng Xiaofeng told Reuters ...Peng declined to say how much the project will cost, but said proceeds from a recent share sale and cashflow are more than enough to cover the expense. "We are one of the most profitable firms in the sector and our profit exceeds $100 million each month. The proceeds and our cash flow are far more than enough to fund the expansion," he said...LDK raised $192.4 million from a secondary offering of 4.8 million American Depositary Shares. While boosting its capacity, LDK, which supplies wafers to solar products makers such as Suntech Power Holdings Co (STP), would also consider making acquisitions especially in the upstream polysilicon business, he said.
He did not name any potential targets. Peng, also chairman of LDK, also said that he did not expect any negative impact from the global economic turmoil, as its order book was filled until 2018.
Long LDK.
Ford Celebrates, GM Scratches Its Head
Ford has a ton of better product in the pipeline and a corrcted vision for the future. However...
1. Detroit/Dearborn unions. Thousands of people moved down here to get away from them. If you refused to strike/slowdown, you got a brick through your window. Ford cannot complete with BMW, Nissan, Hyundai, Mercedes, or Honda plants with better and simply nicer workers anywhere else in the nation.
2. Reliability & durability. There have always been more Ford trucks sold, yet more GMs are still on the road. They last longer. My GMs ran badly long after my Fords quit running at all. Now, GM has moved ahead of EVERYBODY in reliability. Ford has not. Chrysler is so bad that they suck the good parts off of passing cars, but I digress.
3. Nobody except the two posters on this page gives a rip about an American brand. My Honda and Nissan are American cars built in the USA, one by my American relatives. My American neighbor lets me drive the American-designed and built experimental cars [580HP!!!] from the "Bavarian" company down the street. Ford destroyed themselves; they do not deserve consumer sympathies or subsidies for having created jobs 100 years ago. How many did they create this decade?
4. The Ford descendents will never cut the dividend or risk their controlling stock shares, even if they could fix the debt ratio. They would let Ford die before thinking long-term. Fords could kill Ford.
Daytraders, have fun with F.
Long-term growth investors, keep running until you can run no more.
Disclosure: I hope I am wrong.