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Latest Comments1080 Comments
Commercials on Sirius XM: Benefit vs. Backlash
I hope your laughing when you say that...... about Public Schools that is.
Commercials on Sirius XM: Benefit vs. Backlash
you are too kind...... and thanks...
Commercials on Sirius XM: Benefit vs. Backlash
3 times are a charm.... LOL
Shure46
I agree with you that the RS and share dilution are going to be a done deal at the annual meeting. I still think that shareholders will be surprised when the final financing arrangement is announced. Shares as warrants against the risk, say B preferred standing in front of the common on a default, are still attractive to a bank with a good payer as Sirius Xm has been. Cash on hand to pay of the remaining Feb 09 is very possible and a new Bank deal on the May debt is a reasonable expectation with more strings, such as the warrants, and a higher rate. To burn the shorts this could be announced after the meeting and RS and Dilution approvals.... Wouldn't that shake things up??
It is still completely possible that Mel will not issue most of these newly authorized shares. The incredible dilution authorized could be necessary to facilitate the split, even if the reverse was a 1 for 20 resulting in 400 M authorized and 175 M issued as the company is now configured. If the Feb and May 09 debt is taken care of without issuing new Convertible Bonds and instead announce using the COH to take out the Feb debt, I think the stock price would go to .6 to .9 / share on the announcement. Now, if additionally they pre announce good FCF in the 4Q, the stock could easily go back over a buck before any RS would even take place. So much for my Christmas wish......LOL
Will All Shipping Companies Suffer Equally?
Good point. FRO only has 8 vessels out of their 76 that are capable of transporting ore, O/B/O types, 10.5% of their fleet. SFL has 8 of their vessels being O/B/O types and only 1 dedicated Dry Bulk vessel, of their 58 vessel fleet or the potential for 15.5% of their business effected by dry bulk rates. Using the happenings of the BDI, BPI, or BCI to explain the quarterly results of these companies is only as effective as the percentage of their business participating in this type of transport IMHO. Reporting on the effect of the oil transport industry for both of these companies would seem to be more meaningful, with dry bulk sprinkled in as a punctuation mark of the economic downturn for this sector in general..
Last Thursday Was the Bottom - It's Time to Get Back in
Other than bail out money from the government and the lowering of interest rates, nothing has really occurred to unwind the Residential RE market to a point of stabilization represented by flat values and moderate sales. With Commercial RE, paper is more short term and will be called in to reset over the next 12-18 months, with much tighter requirements. Foreclosures and bankruptcies in this sector will cause a new round of heartaches. With store closings(HD), and retail bankruptcies (Circuit City), not only Mall, but Office Building occupancy and revenues will be under pressure.
I just can't see anyone calling a bottom after an 18% run, given all that is known and unknown about this historic economic event yet. I cannot trust the leadership that sat by watching all this develop, be the same experts that now will tell us that it is all OK now. I don't fault the author for being hopeful, but looking at the charts will show that we just came off a lower bottom and haven't even broke through the 13DMA yet to establish a higher top. My take is that we will not.
Commercials on Sirius XM: Benefit vs. Backlash
I agree that all revenue stream ideas should be run through some third party assessment of viability. You however have not given me your thoughts on how important the uniqueness of the company's product is and how you feel that it would impact their ability to bring in additional subs after running commercials on their music channels.
On your second post, my feeling is no the stock will not keep going up in price next week, but I have been wrong many time before. I stated above why I feel this way in looking at the charts and level ll action this Holiday week.
Commercials on Sirius XM: Benefit vs. Backlash
I averaged down to .2050 and made very little.... just wanted to come out clean. When I bought shares at .24 and .25, I hadn't thought .14 was possible. I now know it is and don't want to be in during the early part of next week. My take is more technical in nature than based on company performance or any possible news. From watching level ll trading, this week was easy action, without any real incentive to take it down. The charts and level ll are being interpreted by me to mean the shorts took a break and welcome the stock going up a bit. I think the short side of the trades are making money on smaller moves now and the action we are seeing up or down is orderly and without any panic at all. Absent any real surprise in debt financing, the shorts will make money whenever they want. I think s162's short squeeze will only occur if the company announces bank financing without a lot of dilution for the Feb and May debt. It all boils down to what the chances of that happening are. I think they are low....
Commercials on Sirius XM: Benefit vs. Backlash
Commercials on Sirius XM: Benefit vs. Backlash
Appreciate your comments. The lines are what I personally avoid but love to see the enthusiasm. Every since my - Hurry Up and Wait - days of the Air Force as a young recruit, lines have had a different meaning for me.... Any Veterans out there know what I'm talking about. The lines then didn't have the rewards back then that these hopefuls have today.
I agree and have been a proponent of News induced rallies for this stock, but just feel that their is way to much Hype in the market in general that has created a short term overbought situation. With the Shorts still hovering as always, and taking a break this week to enjoy the Holiday and let the Market recover, I just feel that their coming back in force in the early to middle part of the week. A lot of opposition will be very vocal about the auto bail out and in the end the money will be given. IMHO. This just becomes an opportunity for the shorts to make money taking it down and then rebounding on a positive decision. The auto stock are already ahead of themselves in price and will suffer early also. Well that's my take and now we will all have to see how it unfolds. I think that s162's strategy of moving in halves is a good one. I am just trying to recover more in less time.
My strategy may be foolish, but look where the SP is while I am employing it. I still believe that before the meeting and with the positive news on the autos the stock will move off and out of this range until after the meeting. The low .40's are possible, and I am hoping that it goes their. I just think it will go down before it gets there. If on Monday it closes over .26, then I probably was wrong and I have a longer wait before I get back in.
An iPhone With Satellite Radio - Gasp! Really?
It is sad that you feel so threatened by debate......
Commercials on Sirius XM: Benefit vs. Backlash
Commercials on Sirius XM: Benefit vs. Backlash
hey guys,
relmor I was feeling like you on Wednesday about next week after looking at the charts and how the price is approaching 13 day and though I would wait until today to take advantage of a weak trading day to take it the price down. I cleared 85 % of my positions in the stock today. The technical indicators are not looking very inviting for next week on the markets in general. If I had a margin account I would short the indexes here, with pre announcements going to be ugly. As far as the Autos go, They will get their money but that presentation isn't until the week of the 8th. Next week I fear could be a week of testing recent lows in the indexes and without any real news on Sirius, we could do the same hear. Next week the shorts (bears) are back to business IMHO.
Commercials on Sirius XM: Benefit vs. Backlash
Commercials on Sirius XM: Benefit vs. Backlash
A discussion of the revenue generated from the advertising revenue gained vs. the revenue lost from the increased churn of existing subs and the headwind that will be created in generating new subs, (a double negative impact) from commercial based music programming, perceived or actual, needs to be researched. Unintended consequences of any programming action is a very important aspect of this company's future success. Even 5 seconds of nationally sponsored programming will be Exploited by the Competition and Analyst already not in favor of the subscription business model to take the company's only true competitive advantage away. I think Sirius' Program management is already fighting an uphill PR battle in the merged content arena. Customer satisfaction MUST be their primary concern even if it takes the company into bankruptcy. This Business Model is under attack from the Perfect Storm of the Economy as you already accurately pointed out. To throw revenue from commercials into the mix would not be indefensible and further proof to the competition and nay sayers that the business model is a failure. So let the Bilge Pumps run 24/7 during the storm, and when the winds and waves subside, let the pure content product of music stand firm. JMHO
Sirius Investors Face Difficult Decisions: It All Boils Down to Faith
Hope you guys had a great Thanksgiving.
The S&P downgrade was a Credit Downgrade on its rating and not an analyst downgrade. They are currently still rate 4 stars by the S & P. The analyst downgrade may follow next week, but other than the Yahoo board, the credit change hasn't hit all of the brokerage listed news reporting facilities yet.