tl

Loading...
Symbols:
Authors:
comments17
  • Positive ratings 0
  • Negative ratings 0
  • Net rating 0
Filter comments by:
Highest rated Latest comments
Or filter by symbol:

Latest Comments
17 Comments

    • Thu Sep 18th 09:22 AM
      |
      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Hank Paulson: Leading Us to the Next Bull, Soon
      I agree with much of what you say, but your belief that the housing market will bottom as quickly as 2009 is unlikely, in my opinion. Past housing slumps lasted at least 4 years, and our latest housing boom is on an order of magnitude much higher than anything we've ever seen. What makes you believe that housing could bottom so quickly, relative to historical peaks/bottoms?
      View article »
    • Thu Jul 3rd 11:03 AM
      |
      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Banks Are Bearish, or Hedging, Financials and Real Estate
      Wait a second. Your article states that the institutions' holdings were as of the end of first quarter 2008. Yet you also point out the May highs. How can you be sure that the banks did not pare down their holdings of SKF and SRS between the end of March of mid May?
      View article »
    • Sat May 24th 00:24 AM
      |
      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Oil a Bubble? Part One
      You'll need to click in the 5-year chart on that link to see my point.
      View article »
    • Sat May 24th 00:23 AM
      |
      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Oil a Bubble? Part One
      Not all parabolic charts result in a crash. See: www.bloomberg.com/apps...
      View article »
    • Tue May 13th 10:04 AM
      |
      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      NAR's Lawrence Yun Continues to Mislead on Housing
      The Boomer Baby argument is tired. It's the same argument that the homebuilders used to convince themselves and their investors to build -- as it turned out -- too many homes. Judging by the stock prices over all the homebuilders, the Boomer Babies aren't going to save the housing market.
      View article »
    • Tue May 13th 10:02 AM
      |
      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      NAR's Lawrence Yun Continues to Mislead on Housing
      Rental market to heat up? I don't see it. Maybe temporarily, as rental properties are converted to condos in some cities. But all the extra inventory will ultimately lead to a softening rental market as many of the new condos are converted back into rentals.

      Please explain why you see the rental market heating up.
      View article »
    • Sun Apr 27th 21:57 PM
      |
      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      St. Joe Should Climb 25% - Barron's
      Why are some of its holdings sitting "on its balance sheet at below-market-value prices"? Who determines what "market value" is?
      View article »
    • Sun Apr 27th 10:27 AM
      |
      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      REITs: An Update
      I believe much of what propelled REITs since January was the absolutely unexpectedly massive rate cuts by the Fed. That changed the game completely. Now REITs's yields actually look attractive. My concern with holding a position in SRS is that rates are not likely to rise in the near term, so REITs would have to report serious earnings disappointments in the near term for SRS to perform.
      View article »
    • Sat Apr 26th 11:26 AM
      |
      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      REITs: An Update
      Toro, you've owned SRS for a while now. Do you realize the nasty value decay that holding an ultrashort hands you? I only realized this after watching SRS for several months. As you wait for REITs to finally admit weakness (at least by their stock prices), your SRS holdings fall in value even if IYR is flat over time.

      I think you're right: REIT stocks will ultimately correct. But while you wait to be proven right, your SRS falls further. Maybe shorting IYR is the smarter play -- but there are obvious risks doing that as well.
      View article »
    • Wed Apr 23rd 21:15 PM
      |
      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Vacancies Soar in Commercial Real Estate Bust
      You're over-hyping that stats to suit your thesis. Vacancies rising from 13% to 13.6% is far from "soaring" -- yet.

      Yes, there will be weakness in CRE. The forecasted 19% vacancy rate by 2009 would not be surprising.
      View article »
    • Tue Apr 15th 11:41 AM
      |
      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      UltraShort Real Estate ETF: The Only Safe Haven for Commercial REITs
      John the Bear,

      Mortgage REITs like RAS make up a small portion of IYR and SRS. For SRS to really move up, equity REITs need to show weakness.
      View article »
    • Sun Apr 13th 21:53 PM
      |
      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Ultra and Inverse ETFs: The Downside of Doubling Up
      The link is not copying correctly. Just compare the 3-month charts of SKF and XLF.
      View article »
    • Sun Apr 13th 21:52 PM
      |
      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Ultra and Inverse ETFs: The Downside of Doubling Up
      Last link didn't work right. Try this one. You may need to copy and paste it.

      finance.yahoo.com/q/bc...
      View article »
    • Sun Apr 13th 21:48 PM
      |
      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Ultra and Inverse ETFs: The Downside of Doubling Up
      The math is a little tricky, but Ultra Short ETF's certainly do show price erosion over time. It's easier to look at a chart to show how this works.

      Here's a perfect example. Note that the chart shows that when the lines cross, the intersections occur at lower levels over time. If it were true that ultrashorts provided a true 2:1 return, then the intersections on these charts should always occur at the 0% line.

      finance.yahoo.com/q/bc...
      View article »
    • Sun Apr 13th 10:17 AM
      |
      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      UltraShort Real Estate ETF: The Only Safe Haven for Commercial REITs
      While I agree that REITs are likely to drop in price, keep in mind that the preferred metric is Funds From Operations (FFO), not forward earnings. Granted, FFO is a metric created by the REIT industry, so maybe it's not a true measure of a REIT's financial health (anyone remember those late 90's upstart telecoms that were promoting their EBITDA instead of earnings?). But the fact is that FFO is what is used by the investment community to evaluate REITs. So an analysis of forward FFO might be more appropriate.
      View article »