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Latest Comments77 Comments
First Solar Enters Residential Market with $25 Million SolarCity Financing
Solar Companies Discuss Possible Effects of the Downturn on Their Industry
The maket has so far overreacted with arbitrary selling off everything. Sure solar multipliers were high, but it is a strong growth sector too. the raw numbers remain great, rising sales, rising profit, expanding industry. Let the industry post another 2 quarters of great numbers on earnings during this crisis and were off for decades. people will weel unhappy should they not have taken the opportunity to buy at these cheap levels if this scenario continues to fold out so positivly.
And why not? Solar is not a big industry. With all it's current cappacity it hardly manages to provide more than 0.3% of world needed electricity. All in all, i think this industry is still so small and yet so promising that it is quite easy to dodge the ill effects of this credit crisis. And afterall, the only concern for solar company's atm is that this crisis might inpact it's superb growth, not it's current revenue. Other company's are facing real decline in demand, solar is not even feeling decline in a demand that is far higher than the sector's output, to be only concerned about how fast they could still grow, thats one heck of a luxury at this moment.
Current Crisis Trading on Par with Beginning of Great Depression
Goldman Turns Cautious on Solar Sector
Molnar Tuesday cut his rating on First Solar (FSLR) to a Conviction Sell from Buy, slashing his price target to $103 from $365.
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Seriously, if Mister Molnar is just going to pull prices on the fly from his ass, then he can aswell make it a nice round number. 103$? Why not just a 100$? I'd like to see their calculations scheets that first turn ip with 365$ and a few month's later with 103$.
Anyway, if you listened to Molnar when FSLR was at 315$ not that long ago, then you'd be seriously screwed over with this new target. Maybe GS should start to predict the fluctuations months into the future, like FSLR will first go to 365$ and then to 103$ and then to 25.689$ and 24 cents and then back to 5$.
Light the Way with LDK
@Gaucho:
No i'm not really pumping REC, i doubt i could even do that. But i should have understood from the article that LDK didn't produce enough polysilicon in the first place for it's own wafer production. I was under the impression that LDK was a company mainly producing polysilicon with the smaller segment being wafer production. I should read more of their presentations.
Light the Way with LDK
My large wind positions are Vestas, Gamesa, Nordex and Repower, basicly i like virtually all wind turbine company's and they are performing quite well trough this crisis, especially Vestas.
My larger solar positions are Q-cells, REC. Some smaller positions in more risky solar stocks like 5N plus and Ascent solar.Mixed results over the year but the volatility has been nice for trading. I have been playing with such stocks like LDK, CSIQ and SOL on earnings, and i often switch volumes of positions during earnings periods.
I keep away from such stocks as FSLR and SPWR. I tend to keep away from high priced stocks as there is plenty to be gained in less riskier stocks at this point. However you look at it though, it's been a great bargain time for many good alternative energy stocks, and i wouldn't mind another credit crunch induced dip to buy some more cheap stock.
Light the Way with LDK
So basicly, as for large polysilicon providers, should the price of polysilicon alter significantly then it would affect LDK more than REC, as REC has a large amount of it's revenue trough it's pv panels. Should the price drop significantly then REC won't be affected too much as it can reserve large amounts of it's own polysilicon for it's own PV production. LDK is dependant on customers, fabricaters of solar pannels and cells, to buy their products, and when prices of polysilicon and/or wafers go down then their revenue would be affected significantly.
REC is also quite larger than LDK and in a much more financially stable situation, as REC is one of the largest and is the most profitable solar company in the whole solar space, it's also one of the oldest solar company's, one of "the 1st generation", and at that survived some very troubled times for this sector.
LDK, with it's large investment to expand polysilicon production, is in a somewhat more risky financial position, wel mainly should polysilicon prices go down. How likely is that? I don't know, even the analysts have quite mixed oppinions about it, personally i think they won't be affected much, and that LDK is actually quite a good investment, but REC's verticly integrated structure, size and age and profitabilety makes REC one of the most conservative picks in the solar space, and i prefer taking as not too much risk.
Even then, LDK has long term contracts with one of the best company's in the solar space, German Q-cells, set for years, and some other company's. Rec has contracts with the same company, although REC does buy some cells from Q-Cells. My oppinion has always been that these long term contracts mean that the solar industry isn't affected much by this crises, if at all, especially since many of such contracts have been created during this crisis for various company's in the solar space.
Location plays a role to. LDK is strong in China, REC is strong in Europe and USA, atleast iirc, and depending on how the political wind might blow this could favour REC somewhat, or not, but i think subsidies in Europe and USA will rise in volumes. Not that REC really needs subsidies, actually they are now also busy with setting up a large polysilicon plant in Singapore.
Afcourse, at 20$ LDk was just a blatent no-brainer, PE wise, and i was expecting them to end on atleast 50$ by the end of the year. At some point during this crisis LDK was just the cheapest stock in the solar space for a company that made solid revenue's and profit. Hence why many pitched it here.
For the long term i prefer REC above LDK, REC is that rich that it might outexpand quite a few competitors in the long run, it's deffinatly big and strong for a solar company. LDK is more of a risk, but pottentially very rewarding, even at this point, but afcourse lesser so than when it was at 20$. REC was a relative bargain when it retraced to 14-15 euro's too, and it came there again when LDK had a nice move up, so i didn't mind changing position from LDK at that point to REC.
Disclaimer: I'm not an analyst, just my own perception of these stocks, from what i know and have read.
Light the Way with LDK
Profit from the Peak: An Enjoyable Read About Our Energy Problems
So I'm guessing you've turned off the plasma, unplugged the espresso machine, purchased a bike, dialed back the air-con, are showering on cold and on and on ad nauseum because you are so concerned about our future. Right?
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In fact, i have solar panels on my roof. I have a bike and ride it everyday to work. I have my investments in alt energy. I have no plasma screen and rarely watch tv, and the electricity comes from solar anyway. My house has savings lights, and everything is maximally isolated.
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Well I'm young too, and quite frankly I'm tired of hearing these rambling diatribes about the world ills and the "criminality"... perpetrated by others (always) that really aren't an offer to a solution other than being a whiny little bitch. It seems like a genuine cry for help at a personal level. Buck up and do something other than buy into spoon fed nonsense about how we are all careening off a cliff at break neck speed. (because of others of course)
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What sort of facism is it that you to tell me that? I do have the right to criticize these issue's and i have the right to point policy makers on what they should do withought me having to do it myself. Yes if i had billions of dollars or would be ceo of the mightiest company in the world i might do something about it. What is it with you to tell simple people to shut up because they havn't got the power to do everything that is needed themself? My behaviour here is perfect example of ones democratic right to give criticism to policy's that one finds absurd. Mre than enough great men of the past have pointed out that this is not only mans right, but his duty in a democratic world, Jefferson was a particular propponent of this sort of behaviour. You have every right to have youre oppinion too, but don't come out here with youre self rightious view that only youre perception matters and we should all shut up because we don't have youre intellect to see it the correct way. You know just as few about these matters as most others on this site.
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I will agree with you at a high level on renewables though. The problem is you have it all wrong. You've again bought into the populist paradigm of "if only we went all in on renewables".
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Poppulist paradigm my ass. Im a great propponent of wind turbine's and they are price competitive in fact. Wish we had 3 times as much now, and i'm not the only one. Everyone could have as much windmills as Denmark at this point. I'm sure with enough tecnoligy solar will even surpass wind energy.
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Well the FACT is that we are.
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Bull, they subsidize the alt energy sector with trinkets really, especially in the USA. Just count how much money goes to big oil and compare it to alt energy. trinkets really.
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the other inconvenient truth (lovin it...)
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I hope youre silly effort at making a pun did youre ego well, not nessecary with me though.
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is that the biggest impediment to renewables is the industry itself. The solar industry for example is completely chaotic because the are "crack addicted" to subsidy when they don't even need it. Don't believe me? Then you explain why the solar industry is minting millionaires and billionaires and are quite profitable yet they constantly enlist willing foot soldiers such as yourself to go out and extol the "critical need for subsidies".
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I'm getting paid now to promote alt energy?
And i never even mentioned the subsidies. Frankly i don't care how the world solves it's resource issue's exactly, as long as it's being done. Whatever you think about the sector is not my concern, my concern is that we get there, and if we are already there in youre oppinion and subsidies are no longer needed, well then thats good! Foot soldier my ass, i don't get a paycheck from the solar industry, i'm just concerned with my future and those of dozens of generations after me. Energy is just one of these concerns, but what about all other materials? Just how much of our proven reserve's of whatever critical resource has the genneration before us since the 70's consumed? Can you put a percentage on that?
/quote
It's a joke. I know the industry very well and it is complete money grubbing land rush bubble that is this years "dot bomb" It makes me sick really because in the end you are right. We need these technologies to outrun the future need for energy yet a bunch of hucksters are using it as their own "green ATM".
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i don't know about that. Yeah could be that people are misusing it to put some money in their own drawer in some shady way. Well you have that in every sector really. Truly, i would think it's all fairly minute in a relative way if i compare it with the utter idiotic and egoistic way in wich banks have caused this credit crisis, really it boggles the mind!
Look, ill give you the freedom to be as critical about the solar industry as you want, and i won't speak against you on that one. If you find a corrupt firm among it, well then it's for the best that that knowledge is mad epublic, and ill congratulmate you when it turns out to be true. But what has my point of the egoism of our mass consuming society to do with shady bussiness in the solar sector? The only thing i want is green energy, but i'm not the one to talk to when it comes to firm corruption or the likes, ill leave the job of sepperating the good from the bad to people like you then. What you should understand though is that i am really really concerned about our future, and i have done my share of personal sacrifice to give the right example in this direction. So i think we can respect eachoters viewpoints withought it having to confront eachothers. Just plz don't make interpretations and assumtions about me that are just way off, like you did in youre reply. you don't have to compare me to what you think to be the "average stupid solar investor".
Solar and Cash: The Big Boys Have an Answer - Do You?
It would take a field of solar panels or wind turbines the size of a city, to power a city of the same size.
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You don't need wind turbine's the size of the city itself lol. My hometown in Europe has 30.000 souls and is currently almost fully supplied of energy by 9 windmills at the nothern fringe of the city near the industrial zone. ... thats just 9 (2MW) turbine's ... you cant even see them from the other side of the town. :p
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What happens at night? Or when the wind isn't blowing? You're telling me that you can store the extra energy accumulated during the day to keep our city powered at night??
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Some yes, the rest you get from other sources, and the excess you get on good wind days goes to other places. Anyway, its not because the wid blows less at one site that it does so on an other side to. We have windmills al over Europe and there is no problem with exporting for ex electricity from Denmark to france or vice versa.
The Danish have 20% of their energy from wind, and its still growing. And its not like they have regular power outages, au contraire, i think that appens less in Denmark than in other country's.
Anyway, there are enough engineers to provide a sollution for all youre concerns. It's not that i know all the methods on how they resolve these issues, though i doubt you have technical expertise in these fields youreself, no pun intended, just that i doubt that what you put forward are really difficult concerns.
SunPower Is a Semi - It Deserves to Be Valued Like One
I agree. The solar industry is just soo small, even for all the company's it has and for all it's production and growth. It's a minimal amount of world energy output, below 1%, far below that even. And at our current energy crisis, were likely to pick up every energy generation form as an way to get our energy bills down again. Every bit will be needed, but even then solar has a few advantage's why especially we should use it. It can provide energy independance, it can provide lots of jobs, it can improve so much that one day it could even become the source of the majority of our energy, thus can act as a long term sollution, thus in a world where every source of energy will be needed, solar is likely one of the first to be considerd.
Profit from the Peak: An Enjoyable Read About Our Energy Problems
The fact is that it is just criminal how inconsiderate previous generations have been with our antural resources. I am young, and i'm looking with some dispair at the future, we may have a whole load of problems comming towards us be it resources, or our ecoligy, or the future of states and political systems. It jut seems the world is inconsiderate of young people's future as long as some can continue to profit as they had in the past.
I just want the world to concentrate on alternative energy now. It makes sense for so many reasons. While it might be expensive still today, if we concentrate on it technoligy will move fast and we will soon find ourself in a much better ecenomical position that if we hadn't done that. ere will be energy independance, job creation, cheap energy for manufacturing and etc., and there will be so much fewer pollutants.
And i don't care i this regard how fast oil will run up or how fast our ecoligy will degrade's by the various models of whatever scientist or pseudo scientist (or utter amateur in this regard), the fact is that wit all the uncertainty on these matters this generation is simply putting our future at risk, withought consequences for them, and with no idea how things will turn out for us. Atleast if we start to tackle these issue's now we could be preppared for a worse case scenario, and even if this doesn't happen then we will still benifit from it.
So pl take youre "oil is infinite" theory home, leave science debate to the specialists. The fact is that by now the very claim that oil won't run out soo or is even infinite is one of the fundamental reasons why we are now faced with an apparent energy crisis. It could have been prevented, but ignoring this issue in favour of the effeciancy of our current (perhaps unsustainable) economy is what has brought us to such expensive energy right now. The economy didn't want extra costs for prevention of something that it wasn't sure would happen, as it would have been an extra burden hurting the conomy, now we see that it's getting near to reality and were faced with even higher costs now.
People need to forget for once just how much money 1 million$ is. The world still has to provide us for infinity, or atleast until our sun goes supernova.
Is This a Recession? Wrong Question.
The company results are all fairly good, could be better, but most company's do not really seem to be in trouble. This "recession" originates from the US banking sector, and it is easpecially the banking sector even globally who is doing bad. Apart from that we seem to have some sort of energy crisis, wich does hurt margins of many company'sn mainly trough the rise in oil price.
SO my conclusion is that pure technicly indeed we havn't got a recession. What we have is an banking system wich has done some really stupid thing's and wich will have to solve it's issue's, but it's not that high a concern for many company's, especially the big rich ones. The energy crisis is a fundamental problem however, and our economy's will for the next years probably concentrate on energy effeciancy, energy independancy and exploitation of new energy sources. Hence why the energy sector is doing much better than the rest, because the really important factor in what is changing our economy's is energy costs.
As to youre point of local changes, that hardly matters. many local places had shabby economic prospects even during bull years, that didn't make it a recession neither.
First Solar Spreads Some Sunshine
Tell me why i should invest in SPWR with it's absurd valuation if i could just as well invest in REC. Both company's are comparable in size and quality of product but REC has atleast a decent profit margin on their sizable revenue and has a far lower market cap than SPWR. And then consider that subsidy's and economical sitatuition create more uncertainty over US solar stocks than European ones for ex. IMo valuations for SPWR and FSLR imo either reflect some chauvinism or speculation in the USA is just that more extreme. I'd go for the latter.
A-Power: Silly Me, I Still Like Wind Power