Ex15:26
Loading...
Symbols:
Loading...
Symbols:
Hedge Fund Jobs
Job Seekers: Search jobs by category, get job alerts by email or live feed, apply online See full list of jobs »
Employers: See all recruitment options, get applications online or by email Post a job »
Trading Center
- Free E-Newsletters
- About Seeking Alpha
- About Us
- Contact Us
- What's New
- Readers Feedback
- Advertise With Us
- Contributors
- Contribute an Article
- Feature Your Book
- Our Contributors
- Anonymous Contributions
- Dispute an Article?
- Legal
- Terms of Use
- Privacy
- Copyright
Latest Comments51 Comments
My Take on This Very Risky Market
I'm not sure if you shared anything new here. I would caution you though that your assumption that all life policies should be scrapped is poorly reasoned. I would agree with anyone that there are a tremendous amount of bad insurance companies that sell permanent insurance, however if the policy is a whole life policy it is the one investment that is build to survive your 8% failure scenario (assuming your insurance company has excellent financial strength).
I personally own 2 whole life policies, one with Northwestern Mutual and one with Guardian. Both continue to perform and neither possess anything but less thatn 1/2% of their surplus in either MBS or asset-backed securities. Of all the companies out ther these policies are the last assets that I would sell. In fact my agents and I constructed our plan with these types of scenarios in mind.
Would I suggest have more than 10% or 15% of my networth in permanent insurance? No way! Do you and my financial advisor wish that you would have had a significant amount of your cash in a policy like Northwestern that has actually returned a 5.8% return (net of all expenses - this is not the dividend rate, but the actual Cash RoR over the last 20 years with AAA credit risk)? The answer is "YES! you wish you owned it!"
If you plan on making blanket comments, at least make a concession in your generalization that two companies have outperformed and continue to do so.
While I've latched on to something very specific at the end of your document I take these comments very personally, because quite frankly the permanent insurance policies I own have outperformed most of the indicies for the 1, 3, & 5 years periods easily! By the way, did I mentioned that they are paid up policies now and therefore I own the death benefit and my cash value continues to grow without any premium payments. In other-words, my cash value continues to increase year after year and I pay nothing. My "investment will get better and better with little uncertainty. Perhaps you should mention these two great companies to your advisors so they might actually help their clients rather than guide them to destroy the one asset they may have in their portfolio that might be working. Again, I concede that most companies don't produce - that is why I am blessed that I listened to my Northwestern and Guardian agents!
Cheers.
Ex15:26
Priceline Guarantees Sunshine, Gets Conversion
It stinks that PCLN and the hotel didn't get their communication synced, but why would you ever, ever, ever think that you should book a flight, hotel, or rental, without confirming a day or two in advance? I'm not sure what kind of traveler you are, but I am a freak about ensuring that all details are confirmed and re-confirmed so I don't have to endure the trauma you faced.
I'd give PCLN another chance (maybe here in the states first), but always confirm via phone before you start your trip. Why risk it?
Sell and Short Recommendations for a Bearish Market
Thanks for the update.
The difference between sharksm and me is that I made more money than I can spend over the last 4 months and it took him 40 years --- and that he only goes long and I only short and buy puts.
Bigpete --- GM can go to zero so there's $10 left to go.... I imagine that it will actually go to $5 and some arrogant hero private equity firm will sign up to get their teeth kicked in for the next 10 years till they learn that unions, healthcare, and future pension liabilities are not profitable for any business model.... including ones that make products that no one wants and are completely useless in an environment of $80+ barrells of oil. The airlines are similar.
In fact, I don't think these guys actually read the article, they simply became indignant that you said you shorted things. Watch out, Dick Fuld and Jamie Dimon may be next posting that your on the watch list!
Keep it up.
EX
Crystal River’s Q2 Write-Downs Could Bankrupt the Company
I don't have a vested interest in this stock or options so take it for what it is worth. I'm glad to see that you have put $ on the table and it looks like Greg has too. The beauty about markets is that we won't have to wait long and we'll find out who did some great analysis or got lucky, or both.
1) CMBS or ABX indicies manipulation -
Please, if anything these indicies are too conservative in their valuations and don't reflect real values at all. Why do you think LEH, UBS, MER, and others continue to tell us that "WE'RE ALL DONE WRITING THINGS DOWN" - yet continue to write down assets..... in the case of the ABX - those are significantly impaired and in the case of CMBS - just wait a few months and those will really come off as office lease rates and rent rolls begin to fall.
2) Your comments remind me of the guys that owned TMA right before it was blowing up. You suggest that the REPO debt wouldn't or couldn't be subject to being pulled..... wake up!!! IB folks, banks, and other liquidity providers are pulling lines all over the place. Just look at the PENN National Deal (there were many reasons why it didn't go, but one was that funding appearing to be backing out). Why hasn't there been a high yield issuance in Europe this year? CREDIT IT TIGHT and banks don't want to give it to potentially risky counterparties.
As I mentioned, I don't have a dog in this fight, but it sounds like you are way, way too defensive for someone that only has a 500 share stake. I will predict that the CMBS market rolls over (with or without manipulation of the CMBS indicies) and your 500 shares won't buy you a cup of coffee in 12 to 18 months.
Best of luck.
Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook
"We don't have a queue!".... No, you don't need one when you can bid up the px and drive it higher.
The Hindenburg Omen: Crash Signal In Play
What would happen if the China dumped all its gold on the market in one day? By by $900 an oz, that's for sure.
Take the H.O or leave it. I'd like to have a list of all confirmed previous H.Omens please.
Is Regions Financial Due for a Bounce?
Management may be upbeat, but that's just because they were able to sell their remaining personal shares as the stock ticked up for once!
I'm kidding, I think the theme I keep hearing from folks is that "it's overdone and there are values out there".
Yes, they are probably correct, however you must be able to trust the companies and what they are saying.
In the case of some of the larger banks, management doesn't even know what is in their portfolios and so how could they even know what guidance to give.
I bet banks like STI that gave guidance that their loan losses were in line with expectations and the dividend is safe.... will regret that.
The turnaround is contingent on a turnaround in the real estate market and overall economy. Both are not happening now.
As the consumer gets tighter and tighter we're going to see homeowners with 2nd liens and HELOCs walk, I can guarantee that these are not priced in.
'The Time to Buy Financials' Is Still Not Now
Yes, you seem like a thoughtful value investor....
However, buying financials and these regional banks now is tough. You may catch a rally if you get lucky, however you will probably suffer much more just because so many bad stories with other players are still coming out.
Your recommendation of CTBK is a perfect example. It may be a great bank, however if you owned it Monday, you are now 20-30% down from there.
The argument that these stocks are great b/c they pay a great dividend is a tempting one, until they are so impaired that they have to cut that dividend. In the meantime, you've suffered entirely too much carnage and will get further punished when they announce the dividend cut.
I think the financial play will be a great one, I just don't have to call the bottom, I'd rather miss 5% of the longer term 300% or 400% rally over the next several years, to confirm a rally and preserve capital.
I'm not perfect by any stretch of the imagination, just more conservative in watching trends.
Going Double Long on Agriculture with DAG
Going Double Long on Agriculture with DAG
RBS Predicts Global Market Crash: What's In It for Them?
What's your motive Grace? Why would you post for SA? You do this probably because it is your source of revenue or your passion, or both.
This guy may be talking his own book or may be genuinely warning his clients to get the heck out. I would suggest that it takes more guts to take a stand like this and warn your clients than sit in the office and cross your fingers and write a commentary that states that the US is not in an official recession. I for one disregard everything my firm's economist writes because it's as bullish as Abby Joseph Cohen in February of 2000. How refreshing that someone would come out and try to scare the wits out of everyone. If his boys make a few bucks who cares, GS trades against their clients and the street thinks that is a great thing!
.Me: Apple's Missing Link
Cal-Maine Foods: Eggs in One Basket
Clearly, there are 3 things that must receive more attention and deeper analysis to even begin looking into this -
1) Pricing action - is the whole world short this thing, why, and what catalyst will cause that short interest to go away.
2) Feed costs - you mention it, but what details regarding their feed costs and their ability to either hedge this or inability to plan for this can make for good or lousey future performance.
3) Finally, since they are the #1 producer of eggs how do they drive pricing with their purchasers. Do they have pricing power? What have been egg prices and where do we see them going.
Like I said, good intro, I just wouldn't put a dime into it without knowing this info. Also, I've seen a lot of really smart investors use the dividend as a reason to buy and sit in a loser with the justification that hey "I'm getting a dividend". At the end of the day, all you get is a loser with a dividend - ask BAC investors.
By the way, the yield gets better as you continue to get crushed!
Thanks for the info, I appreciate it and will put it on my list of homework assignments.
Sinopec: Potential for Growth
I don't own any energy stocks, but frankly am looking at them as potential short candidates for a temporary drop in oil px. (not saying this is one, just researching).
Coming from a long perspective though, you mentioned above that SNP doesn't make money unless oil is less than $76 and in fact, they got a capital infusion from PRC to offset losses. Unless your view is that oil will come down, does it make sense to own SNP?
In pricing action today, SNP moved up $5 - in your opinion is this a result of the falling price of oil (-4%).
Further, I'm just speculating here, but they actually might be a lone firm out there in the energy space that actually increases with oil decreases? Could actually be some kind of pair trade...?
Digging Deeper Into Lehman
I always love reading your work. Thank you for your time and efforts.