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Latest Comments11 Comments
Citigroup: The End Draws Near
The problem is the lack of an UPTICK rule allows massive, concentrated short selling that cascades when long sellers have to sell too. It might not be an "uptick rule" but there really needs to be some mechanism to throttle the short selling rate.
On Nov 22 12:02 PM Emerald wrote:
> Financially, Citi can survive. Short sellers are on the rampage and
> naked short sellers should be put in jail! Paulson has chosen to
> leave his job early and should be fired immediately for incompetence.
> Bush just left the country in a crisis. Reinstate the uptick rule
> and provide Citi a bridge loan. Otherwise, Citi's failure will show
> us what the "new" great deprssion will look like when the government
> institutes a national bank holiday through the end of January 2009.
Citigroup: The End Draws Near
The problem is the lack of an UPTICK rule allows massive, concentrated short selling that cascades when long sellers have to sell too. It might not be an "uptick rule" but there really needs to be some mechanism to throttle the short selling rate.
On Nov 22 12:02 PM Emerald wrote:
> Financially, Citi can survive. Short sellers are on the rampage and
> naked short sellers should be put in jail! Paulson has chosen to
> leave his job early and should be fired immediately for incompetence.
> Bush just left the country in a crisis. Reinstate the uptick rule
> and provide Citi a bridge loan. Otherwise, Citi's failure will show
> us what the "new" great deprssion will look like when the government
> institutes a national bank holiday through the end of January 2009.
Congress Offers Big Three Automakers Help, Makes Demands in Exchange
Short Selling Is Not Evil
When these rules are proposed, the big money funds who are heavy supporters of Chris Dodd, the head of Senate Banking Committee, have a big stick to beat them down with. It is no accident that SAC Capital is a large Dodd donor and located in his state.
Position disclosure has not hurt Warren Buffett. Position disclosure (including short positions), should not hurt the short sellers.
Ban on Short Selling Could Have Negative Consequences for Options Market
CBOE Put-Call Ratio Indicates Negative Outlook
A growing number of people are writing in the money or at the money put options to buy shares at a lower effective price. The excess put premium over the intrinsic value reduces the effective price I have to pay for shares. This kind of put volume is bullish not bearish.
I have watched stocks under attack by short sellers who cannot get shares to short sell in the money call options. Their call volume is not bullish.
Taking the ratio may give some indication but there is an increasing amount of noise in the ratio. This noise makes it less reliable.
Crystal River’s Q2 Write-Downs Could Bankrupt the Company
The pattern of 3 very negative Seeking Alpha articles on small companies where he holds a short or long put position is the most revealing pattern of all.
It may not be but it has the appearance that the prime motive is personal gain.
Newcastle, RAIT Financial: The Long Case for REITs
The application of Fair Value does not imply any need to repurchase the liabilities. It does however give a much better current value of the company when comparing asset values that are required to be marked to market value.
The NCT $1.3bn from the sale of assets was used to pay down liabilities. The liabilities were not paid off at face value. The liabilities were paid off at market value.
REITs: Still Some Bargains Out There
REITs: Still Some Bargains Out There
The Zacks ratings Greg published in March for RAS said he expected RAS to earn $1.30 for 2008. This means he expected they will be paying 90% of the $1.30 or $1.17 this year in dividends. At the current RAS $7.50 price, that is a dividend yield of 15.6% for the year. The $5.00 2008 target he set for RAS would imply a dividend yield of 23.4%.If RAS performs like CEO David Cohen has said several times, RAS would continue the dividend at $1.84. At $1.84, the dividend yield for a $7.50 stock price would be 23% and at your $5.00 target would be 36%.
If RAS makes the $214M in fees Cohen estimated, the dividend would be higher than the $1.84.
If management numbers were met, buyers today would get a 23% return. If your much worse forecast happens, then the 15% dividend yield seems like a pretty good for the 6 months.
Greg also forgot to add a stock position disclosure to the end of the interview.
Accounting Antics Lift I-Bank Earnings - Barron's
The other side is when the debt is securitized and simply passed through to other investors. The asset has to be marked to market which books a loss but the liability could not until the recent FaS Rule 159 became effective. Mortgage REITs have large negative EPS simply because the of the writedown of only one side. When FAS 159 is applied the book values of these companies take a good positive jump. They have their problems and risks but as a group have a 25% short interest, yield 20% in dividends and will show a large jump in book value when Q1 earnings are released.
In this case, FAS Rule 159 makes a lot of sense.