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    • Tue Dec 2nd 17:59 PM
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      Last Thursday Was the Bottom - It's Time to Get Back in
      That is why you are not Buffet or even Grantham. Grantham is saying that while you cannot predict the bottom - you got to be an idiot not to buy at around these prices.


      On Dec 02 01:34 PM bobbobwhite wrote:

      > Buying stocks now is just like getting into the winemaking business.
      > To make a small fortune, you have to start with a large one.
      >
      > "Tacitus", or whomever, anyone wanting to make a small fortune in
      > the market now better have a large one already in hand. Even Buffett
      > is down over $325M on his GE buy, and we give him the credit(deserved
      > or not) of being wiser than most. Maybe he still will be seen as
      > such, but it will take decades and he will be dead.
      >
      > Funny thing, I know, but I would like my investments to pay off while
      > I'm still alive.
      View article »
    • Tue Dec 2nd 17:57 PM
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      Last Thursday Was the Bottom - It's Time to Get Back in
      What if there is only 20% to take?


      On Nov 28 09:50 AM xsuddensam wrote:

      > Like a wise man said about profits,"You can have the first and last
      > 20%. I'll take the middle 60%.
      View article »
    • Tue Dec 2nd 17:39 PM
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      Chart of the Week: Yields on U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Below 3%
      Has the credit crisis formed a bubble in treasuries? Yeilds should explode when the treasury tries to monetize the enormous deficits being accumlated to deal with the crisis.
      View article »
    • Sun Nov 23rd 17:45 PM
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      The Truth About Bailouts
      Have we learned nothing from the past century?

      Another totally non-sense article which could be written by Andrew Mellon whose advice to President Hoover about how to solve the Depression. "Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmer, liquidate real estate" was Mellon's prescription, according to Hoover's memoir. That's a way of saying do nothing; let the system correct itself. We know what happened.

      Fortunate for us we don't have this idiot in charge.
      View article »
    • Thu Nov 13th 16:54 PM
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      Back at the Bottom
      I read that at the bottom of the bear markets "Joe the plumber" is shorting the market. In a bear market - nothing is supposed to work - everything goes down. When AA corporate bonds are yeilding 10%+ I agree that lot of risk has now been taken out of the market and if you have cash this is the time to spend - but cautiously,
      View article »
    • Thu Nov 6th 22:57 PM
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      When Will the Recession End?
      While the author has made a good case backed with data - I cannot say the same about the commentators, who strike me as a rabble of sore neo-con losers.
      View article »
    • Sat Oct 18th 18:42 PM
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      Fundamental Valuation: How Low Could We Go?
      That is exactly my point - Treasuries are very expensive at this point relative to equities. The same for Gold.
      View article »
    • Sat Oct 18th 17:47 PM
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      Fundamental Valuation: How Low Could We Go?
      P/E and P/B do not provide context.

      S&P 500 Div yield in the early 80's was ~6% and long bonds yielded ~14%. Now S&P Div yields at present is ~ 3% and long bonds yield ~ 4%. The market is arguably cheaper now by this measure than the 80's.

      Also P/E ratio's are approaching (at 11.1) - implying a earning yeild of 9%. Even if earnings fall by 10% - this is 100%+ risk premium over a long bond.

      The market is clearly irrational now and cannot separate fear from bear.
      View article »
    • Sun Sep 28th 14:13 PM
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      A Tale of Three Pharmaceuticals: Abbott Labs, Pfizer and Eli Lilly & Co.
      It is hard to judge what is hot, cold and what could blow up in your face.

      I have all three as well as Merck, Schering-Plough, Aventis and Novartis. Like insurance and finance - pharma is inherently risky - apart from pipeline and patent (expiry, litigation) risks, there is product risk (i.e. Vioxx) as well as the massive investments needed to bring a product to the market.

      Best is to buy a basket of top Pharma/Biotech - with strong dividends and diversity - they are not a bad investment in the long run with the aging population and the start of the genomic revolution ...

      View article »
    • Sat Sep 27th 18:19 PM
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      Lloyds Buys HBOS: Good Deal or Bad?
      The merged bank will be Britain's biggest mortgage lender and current account provider with a near-30% market share in both. It will be the largest life assurer, too. The pricing power this gives CEO Eric Daniels' new behemoth is quite extraordinary. I can't think of any other bank in any other major industrial economy holding such a large market share. I think if the markets do not go to hell in a hand basket LYG ADR's could be a triple to ($60) while the down side (assuming dilution) is probably $10. Best is to hold for now and see how the next few months play out.
      View article »
    • Sat Sep 27th 15:11 PM
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      Lloyds Buys HBOS: Good Deal or Bad?
      Jeff Cross is correct that UK and US banks are not directly comparable. UK is a oligopolist market, where a few super banks dominate the market. LYG with its strong deposit base will balance out HBOS's exposure to the whole sale market.

      Lloyd's CEO Eric Daniels said that immediately after the deal — which is expected to complete early next year the bank would have core tier 1 capital ratio, the measure most used by analysts for balance sheet strength, of 5.9%. That is marginally below its target of a ratio of between 6% and 7%, and less than the 6.2% it reported at the halfyear stage. At its half-year stage HBOS's core tier 1 ratio was even better at 6.5%.

      LYG is cutting its dividend to preserve capital ratio's but if the UK housing market continues to plummet it may be forced to raise more capital at below book value.
      View article »
    • Tue Sep 23rd 22:31 PM
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      Bernanke Gives Up on Reverse Auction Idea
      The truth is probably in the middle - a reverse auction will force price discovery but at "fire sale" prices and the banks will have to be recapitalized by the treasury (or will fold). A hold to maturity price (or close to it) is more of a bail out. Neither very palatable solutions.

      However I favor the latter because Bernanke want to unfreeze the market and his argument is that once the govt. starts the ball rolling other market participants can start bidding for the securities as well.
      View article »
    • Sun Sep 14th 18:49 PM
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      AIG: The Mark-to-Lehman Market
      AIG is not a bank from where depositors can withdraw or counter-parties can withdraw in a hurry. I can understand this for Lehman which as a investment bank is facing a classic run at the banks engineered by shorts. So comp. are apples to oranges.

      AIG's financial leverage is approx 14 while, quite reasonable for a financial services company.

      AIG shares are going to be hammered tomorrow as the investment sheep, scared by the short wolf pack, crap & run for the hill. My advise to the longs is to sit tight - watch how the next few days unfold. There might be a buying opportunity of epic proportions.
      View article »
    • Sun Sep 14th 14:00 PM
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      So, Do We Own Fannie and Freddie or Don't We?
      The banana republic type seizure of private property from shareholders will be challenged in court and will need to be resolved in court (4th Amendment).
      View article »
    • Sat Sep 13th 20:25 PM
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      Crunching Numbers: Why I'd Buy AIG
      Distressed investing can be very profitable. Look at Ambac as an example (up 800%). I was lucky enough to get in right at the bottom. No luck so far with AIG. However I think at this stage the upside is much more than the downside.

      Long AIG.
      View article »