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  • Bernie Madoff Comes Out of the Closet
    This should be a major loss for investors. The market probably could not make head or tail of it on Friday, also the GM bailout distraction. This is so much much bigger than SocGen, Nuveen and the rest. Investors and hedge funds likely to come to grip with the losses and react on Monday.
    The system is completely broken – regulators, auditors, investment banks – all of them are incompetent and corrupt. I will not be surprised there would (should) be major run on hedge funds as a result of this scandal. Complete confidence is shaken in the system. With all the uncertainty and losses, now a major fraud, as an investor I would just flee this market.

    Market is banking on Obama-Pelosi stimuluses, GM bailouts and is going up. None of these things are going to work – US is bankrupt – too much debt, corrupt politicians; consumer confidence is shaken, next month’s job losses could approach a million.

    Get out stay out of this market, Wall Street is just a Den of Thieves, a giant Ponzi scheme.
    Dec 14 10:59 am |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Negative Real Rates Will Drive Gold Prices Up
    We are in deflationary environment – all prices are going down. Money printing that is being done has not led to increase in money supply in the market yet. If Fed can pull out the money at the right time – we may not have inflation at all.

    But in the current deflationary environment will not recommend gold. Also Fed and all other central banks will do everything to keep gold prices down, to protect the paper currencies.

    Gold may go to 550-600 and maybe a buy then, till then I am staying out.
    Dec 07 19:01 pm |Rating: +2 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Chinese Stock Market Bottoms: What Should U.S. Investors Do?
    Chinese market bottom? Shanghai maybe but not Hong Kong or US (China ADRs). FXI and HK trade with US, US has not hit any kind of a bottom so FXI also has not.

    Long way to go down – don’t get carried away by these rallies – bear market always have rallies. Just notice the technicals lower highs lower lows. S&P can go all the way to 600 very easily – FXI can go to 15 and below, FXP is a much better play.
    Dec 07 03:17 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Manipulation of Gold Prices
    Good article – gives some insights into what happens behind the scenes- I hope the information is factual and not some conspiracy theory.
    Did not understand a few things:
    1. Why is this a 3 step process – “1. Fed gave banks cash for toxic defaulting mortgage bonds. 2. Then, it took the same cash back by selling the banks new treasury bills just received from the U.S. Treasury. 3. The Fed, in turn, bought these T-bills with the newly printed dollars. “
    It could have been a simple single step – Fed exchanges toxic stuff for cash

    2. Who are these “Naked Short Sellers” – what is their motivation rather business model. If they are plain old institutional traders why will they be taking only one side of the trade (short) in ever changing market situation. The shorts likely may not be naked at all – they could be bullion banks, miners etc – having ability to deliver at a profit.

    3. “Leveraged Longs” – why do they have to capitulate each time. Are they inherently weak (why) or are they amateurs – you don’t want to lose more than a couple of times. ‘Non Leveraged Long’ is a good old squeeze – the side with deeper pocket wins. If longs have more money (or staying power) they will win, else the shorts will win. Since the shorts have been winning with alleged backing of the Fed (as suggested) – what will change the dynamic?

    It is obvious that gold price is manipulated- in the current environment it should have thrived but has not. Fed and other central banks that create (print) fiat money have an inherent need to keep the gold prices down – so they do all they can to achieve their goal – they have plenty of fire power. So can the gold bugs ever win?

    4. Dow manipulation below 8000– what are the dynamics – who does it how – a plunge protection team? We know some big players come in and buy – it has happened so many times including this Friday. Don’t quite understand the $ spigot dynamics – who/how?
    If they have capacity to manipulate why at 8 why not at 10000. Why couldn’t they manipulate the oil price – a far smaller market.
    Dec 07 02:51 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • GM: Natural Death or Suicide?
    We are a bailout nation, we have been bailing out the crooks at Wall Street, so why not the Big 3. The Big 3 are as viable (non) and as well managed (mis) as the banks and the Wall Street, so why the step child treatment. Is it class warfare – what is it.
    There is so much talk of Union salaries – the Big 3 executives have huge salaries too, much higher than Toyota executives – why not talk about that. Did the Wall Street executives have to give up their salaries or even their bonuses to get the bailout.

    The Big 3 just do not have the right lobbyist to bribe the Congress that is the only difference.

    I personally am against all bailouts but there has to be a fair play amongst all classes.
    Dec 14 22:10 pm |Rating: 0 -2 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Own Gold? Time to Fold
    Gold price movements would be governed by inflation – real or perceived. Right now real inflation is low. Perceived inflation is also low as clearly indicated by TIPS a market much much larger than gold. In my opinion we are in for substantial deflation – as clearly evidenced by commodity prices,loomomg deep recession. The money printing activities of the Fed area an attempt to inflate – they have failed – as in everything the Govt. does.

    All the conspiracy theories around Central banks selling gold etc, maybe true, but gold market being so small – investors can easily put up that kind of money – a couple of hundred billion dollars and easily overwhelm the Central banks. But they are not doing that. So gold bugs it is bad news, all the money is sitting on the sidelines and continue to sit out there – but not in gold. I may buy gold 600 and below but not at current levels, I am strictly cash (and short).
    Dec 14 13:54 pm |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • A Critical Day for Commodities: Wheat, Aluminum and Copper
    We are heading towards a major recession, the D word itself is being bandied about. Stay away from all commodities – these are falling swords – will chop your head, not just your fingers.

    Overall market is going much lower, stay defensive, even shorting the market at very rip is still a good idea.
    Dec 06 15:45 pm |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Freeport-McMoran: Dead Money Until Copper Prices Recover
    All commodities are going down a lot more - not just industrial commodities like Copper, Al, Steel but also Corn, Oil, Nat-gas, fertilizers, etc - all have gone down 50 -80% already from recent highs. The historical lows are even lower - we already have a $25 call for oil, copper below a $ entirely feasible even by end of year.

    Takeovers may happen - China etc may make a move. But Chinese takeovers will likely not be feasible in the global political environment -especially at these low prices. BHP-RTP takeover has failed, XSTRATA takeover failed.

    Overall market is going much lower, stay defensive, even shorting the market at very rip is still a good idea.
    Dec 06 15:36 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • UltraShort ETFs: At a Tipping Point?
    The double shorts do a very poor job of tracking. They do a decent of tracking only in the very short term - week or so. The fund sponsors somehow seem to be able to get away with it.

    However they are somewhat better then single shorts., use them for what they are worth.
    Nov 15 11:07 am |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Ten Reasons Why Gold Isn't Above $1,000
    I am fully convinced gold is in a bear market. Dollar rally and commodity price plunge is suggesting deep recession and deflation. Risk aversion is leading people back into safe havens like yen and dollar not to gold.

    Down the line the dollar printing activities will lead to inflation, but that is a little bit away.

    Will sell my GLD, NEM, AUY (all at significant losses). Live to fight another day.

    I think the market will go down a lot more, unfortunately covered my shorts too early. Will put new shorts in the next rally.


    Oct 26 13:12 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Goldcorp: Implosion Offers Shiny Opportunity
    Nothing unique about Gold Corp, all gold miners have fallen by similar amounts.

    It is simply a bear market, nothing not even gold shines in a secular bear market, live with it.
    Oct 26 13:04 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Why Oil and Gold Are Headed Much Higher
    Gold price action is surprising. Deleveraging of hedge funds is plausible explanation but can not explain it all especially with such huge amount of money on the sidelines. Central banks are selling- but rationing it out- mints are out- hard to explain that either. Another conundrum I guess.

    I am holding my position – will accumulate if it falls further.
    Oct 19 22:08 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Program Trading, Dark Pools and Gold
    Getting to the crux of the matter gold – price moves are crazy – contradicting all prevailing logic. Pointing a finger at program trading may not be a complete or safe assumption. Central bank selling could be another plausible explanation. It can’t be deleveraging, redemption, sector rotation, or aversion – the down moves been very big, But overall it is another conundrum.
    Oct 16 19:35 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Gold / Silver Ratio Tops 80 to 1
    Gold price action is surprising- gold should be rising- but it is falling a lot. Are central banks selling gold? In these kinds of environments they would/should sell aggressively. They are not selling mint gold with the excuse of shortage.

    Any body has a clue on this.
    Oct 13 20:30 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Sentiment Overview: Downright Gloomy
    There is likely to be a trading rally this week. Will it last, very unlikely – confidence is shattered in the: markets, leadership (GW-Paulson-Bernanke), banks,..

    Ultimately it will only be gold.
    Oct 12 12:47 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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