richjoy

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  • Does Big Oil's Apathy Justify Proposals to Tax Windfall Profits?
    Mr. Saxena's comments are so full of misrepresentations, outright falsehoods, and misleading associations as to be a complete waste of the reader's time (and certainly not worth my time/effort to even attempt to critique in detail).
    Jul 04 11:13 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Petrobras: Set to Become a Global Oil Major - Barron's
    1. I like Ken Hebner, but he has also made bad calls.

    2. I'm not comfortable with the "like Saudi Arabia 40 yrs ago" call; as 40 yrs from now, oil will probably be cheap again because of new source fuels are cheaper.

    3. It will be many years before PBR can bring those new finds to market.

    4. PBR absolutely MUST have high oil prices to justify the huge cost of oil recovery at those depths and other technical challenges.

    5. At PBR's present P/E, there are likely many more attractive opportunities.
    Jun 29 17:01 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful
    Mr. Schwarz...prepare to be flamed by dozens of zealots buying into the Peak Oil Theory. Unfortunately, the Peak Oil folks are like the Climate Change folks--they take no prisoners.

    Frankly, I find myself somewhere between the polar positions. We have a liquid fuels problem--and solar, wind, geothermal, and wave energies (and the like) will not solve that problem. I suspect in the near term oil will go higher (maybe much higher), but in the longer term oil will fall as both new oil fields and liquid coal (or new technologies) come on-stream.
    Jun 22 08:23 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea
    oldgoldbug: Given your handle, I suspect you know something about 'can't miss' bubbles touted by those who reinforce each other with a steady stream of blather.

    Agreed, interest rates on long bonds and 10-yr notes are not set by the Fed...and in the face of growing inflation, should be still higher than they are today. Are they telling us there is more economic pain ahead?...perhaps (and if so, oil consumption will decline by still more than we have seen recently).

    May 31 12:48 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea
    Don't know why I bother, as you kids are so sure in your positions that you only half-listen to those with far more experience:

    I've been investing for almost 40 yrs. I've seen a number of bubbles, including sure-thing 'nifty-fifty', technology, and now peak oil. They come along and folks can't see beyond the hype, they think they will be money machines forever. They were not...and 'peak oil' won't be either.

    I've learned many lessons from my mistakes.

    I'll pass along just this one...over the course of the economic cycle, it isn't your big winners that are most important to your wealth; it's your big losers! If you allocate too much in one place, you are setting yourself up for huge losses.

    Therefore, anyone who tells you not to diversify should be shunned.

    That doesn't mean you should never overweigh 5 or 10% pts. in mega-trends -- like energy, alternative. energy, health care, or materials, for example...but anyone who leaves bonds and broad S&P 500 stocks out of his portfolio is going to pay dearly before this economic cycle ends.
    May 31 10:31 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Oil Sensitivities
    Let's leave the crack spread aside for this theory...

    I've been thinking for a couple weeks about about the relationship between the price of the commodity (use spot oil) versus the price of the oil company stocks (integrateds, E&P, service companies):

    My thinking is that there will be a time when spot oil continues to rise, but oil stocks have peaked--they will stop moving up, and than even start to decline in the face of rising spot prices.

    This would be because when we buy oil stocks, we are buying a MULTI-YEAR stream of future earnings.

    However, inevitably more and more investors will see that alternative energy sources are to become price competitive with oil (even if after taxpayer subsidies); at that time, we will stop buying oil company stocks, and share prices will decline -- even if the spot price of oil continues to climb (which I assume it will until it is clear supply will soon meet demand as more alternative sources come online).

    First, I'm not suggesting this is going to happen in the next year or two; and second, I am going to watch the growth in oil stock p/e ratios, as it would seem a higher p/e assumes more years of growing earnings (at some point an erroneous assumption).

    For now I am going to keep buying the oils; I am also going to hedge by investing in a variety of alternative energy plays.

    Now it is out there...take your best shots...
    May 20 09:23 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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