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Pent up demand's Comments Stream Stats
- 113 Comments, 12
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- Total Comment Stream rating - = 7
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First Take on GM: Packaged Bankruptcy Inevitable
Take the tough medicine now. A healthy auto industry means shedding capacity in manufacturing and in dealerships. That will be painful, but that is the sad reality.
Is Cheap Oil Compatible with Growth?
It's similar to pollution. Most pollution has gone down over the last few decades in western countries while exploding in China and India. We pat ourselves on the back for being so responsible, when in fact all we really did was shut down our dirty industries and send them overseas.
Citi: A Sell at $3.00?
I agree with roger maxims. People have this wild notion that
1. stock is beat down
2. no way gov't. will not let them go out of business
3. profit
As roger says, look at when earnings per share go positive. Maybe in 3 to 5 years. In between time, you will get diluted, and/or high-yielding preferred will be issued to make sure that the profits go anywhere but to the rubes in steerage (common stock). If you want to buy a lottery ticket, go pick up some long dated calls on C.
Let GM Fail
And how much profit was turned on those sales? Oops.
10 Simple Investment Rules for the Very Wealthy
10 Points About the Markets
Haven't you noticed yet that on the campaign trail "rich" equals 200k+ incomes, but when the tax laws are written "rich" means "does not receive public assistance (yet)"?
I agree that there has been zero fiscal discipline for the last 8 years, but I don't hear the Dems calling for cuts to anything but defense spending. Hardly models of restraint. We are all going to pay until they figure out that they cannot fix the budget on the revenue side of the ledger.
10 Points About the Markets
Already the trial balloon has been floated to do a "one time" tax on 401k balances. That is the first of many ways they will be looking to further loot the country so that they have something to spend.
First Take on GM: Packaged Bankruptcy Inevitable
This is a bit like the "third rail" issue of Social Security reform. Any politician who proposes a painful reform is taken out and shot because there are always stupid or unscrupulous opponents willing to say that maintaining the status quo benefitis is an option and ignorant voters willing to elect them on a promise they cannot keep.
On Dec 03 09:17 AM aarc wrote:
> Re-structure GM once the global economy becomes less fragile or at
> least already on the way to recovery.
D-Day: Does Deflation Draw Near?
Lack of demand == overinvestment
We have deflation in sectors where easy money created massive over investment. I realize it's fashionable right now to toss out empty phrases like "Job Growth" and "Invest in the Future", but that is meaningless. Government spending is not an investment when it allows someone to keep building houses no one wants to buy, or what have you. These sectors, housing, mortgage origination, car building, etc. have to be brought in line with what consumers are able to buy. Public money will only delay the inevitable for a while, not prevent it.
I wish savers would create an association in their minds that when they hear the words "government stimulus" they visualize a big siphon hose draining money out of their savings.
Deflation Watch, Day 2: Consumer Prices
Expect to see continued deflation in financial assets with ever-increasing spillover effects in necessities.
On Nov 19 12:31 PM cpi watcher wrote:
> Almost the whole of the All Items monthly drop is accounted for by
> motor fuel and household energy. Everything else continued to go
> up, including food, housing ex-energy, medical costs, recreation
> ...
>
> cpiwatch.com/component...
>
>
> Transportation costs have dropped precipitously for the past three
> months but food prices continue to climb:
>
> cpiwatch.com/trends?sa...
The Autos and Mentality That Ruined Detroit
On Nov 17 10:51 AM Chris B wrote:
> ...yet we are investing in the crappy SUV and subprime mortgage businesses
> of the past instead, so nobody has to be out of a job. This is exactly
> why China will be the dominant superpower in 15-20 years. They are
> investing in the future, not subsidizing failure.
Where do you get your news? The financial industry is shedding jobs like crazy. The "investment" in mortgage backed paper will be a failure just as the "investment" in the auto industry will be. In both cases the same medicine is called for: liquidate, recognize the losses and create a blank slate for some new leaders to build businesses.
The automakers cannot keep their promises on pensions. We can recognize that now or we can wait until the problem grows even worse.
Could Capital Injections Save the Auto Industry?
On Nov 13 03:11 PM jimmy46 wrote:
> A federal BAILOUT WOULD BE STUPID.
>
> The auto companies have so many problems that $50 Billion won't save
> them.
>
> THEY NEED TO GET RID OF WASTEFUL WORK RULES THAT LOWER
> PRODUCTIVITY.
>
> WORKERS & RETIREE'S NEED TO PAY MORE OF THE HEALTH COSTS.<br/>
>
> THE UNION NEEDS TO HELP OUT.
>
> THE JAPANESE FACTORIES IN AMERICA DON'T HAVE GM'S PROBLEMS,
> WHY???
The Death of Buy and Hold?
Yes, because it was obvious to everyone when the bubble reached its height. So you begin your defense of buy and hold by recommending a little fortuitous market timing?
If you expand your time and geographical horizons, buy and hold doesn't look so good. How many countries fell to socialist revolutions in the first part of the century? How many were devastated by wars? Those investors are not factored into the buy and hold track record because they did not survive (literally in many cases).
Could Capital Injections Save the Auto Industry?
We've heard a lot about Wall Street pay lately. Let's talk about the jobs bank and the rampant absenteeism and all the other excesses of the auto workforce before we sign over the tax dollars.
Number of U.S. Homes With Negative Equity Is Stunning
Says you. Banks need cashflow like any other business. I find it doubtful that they can hope to restructure so many loans without starving for cash. As Jolly_Rancher said, anyway you want to slice it, a lot of the banks are dead men walking. Restructuring only changes rate at which they bleed out.
I agree that many defaulters are going to stay in "their" homes if only because there will be nobody from the bank/sheriff etc. to kick them out. But they will be reduced to being de facto squatters with no ability to show clear title or borrow against the property. Just like a lot of third world countries. Good job America!