Pent up demand

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  • The Impending Mortgage Crisis: Part Two
    "A good house is more afforable now than at many times within the last 20 yrs, although he would have you not believe that."

    This statement is absolutely ludicrous. I'm curious what area you refer to jcrash? Where I'm sitting (NYC), price-to-rent is still out of whack by perhaps 50%.
    May 02 08:30 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Impending Mortgage Crisis: Part Two
    jcrash,

    Why do you keep rehashing your silly argument about "payment" vs. price? It makes no sense whatsoever to talk about payments (I assume computed against a traditional 80% fixed mortgage) when prices got so insane that very few first time buyers could come up with the down payment to afford the mortgage corresponding to the payment in your (dare I care it a) model?

    That's the primary reason for the severity of this correction. Lenders again require serious skin in the game from borrowers, and few have the money to put 20% down on a $500,000 house if they didn't get it from their rich pappy.
    May 01 15:28 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • 12 Observations on Residential Housing
    Okay special person, I'll play your game: when Democrats say "tax relief for the middle class" it means "another refundable credit for people who don't pay any income tax anyway", i.e. a welfare payment.

    Yeah I made $200k last year. But I live near NYC where I pay more for rent than most home"owners" pay for their houses and where taxation has reached its pinnacle as art form. But the federal government considers me "rich" so I get none of the rebates for my 3 kids, etc. etc.

    Makes me want to move back out to the sticks and get a nice easy job with some county government and start sucking on the government teat myself.
    May 01 07:11 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Worst Is Over ... Again ... And Again ...
    baji, I suggest you drop that envelope in a mailbox without a stamp. Too many errors of logic to deal with in this little space...
    Apr 30 16:28 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • 12 Observations on Residential Housing
    Oh yeah, jackh. You'll be able to cut the irony with a dull penknife when those of us of working age are living on dog food because of all the taxes we pay to keep retirees from having to live on dog food.
    Apr 30 16:26 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Housing Bubble Goes Pop
    Malkiel,

    A true investment creates wealth. The traditional "building equity" argument essentially treats the home not as a creator of wealth but as a store of wealth. Well then it's a poor one, as its value is taxed every year, it requires a substantial amount of money for maintenance every year, etc.

    People make money on the sale of homes to the extent that they intentionally or unwittingly speculate on location and win.
    Apr 30 15:23 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Housing Bubble Goes Pop
    Sorry Tom B. Last time I checked, we aren't close to running out of space to build new houses, so population growth won't have much affect. The effect of a preference for bigger houses will be shown as a premium relative to older/smaller homes, not as a permanent change in the overall price level.

    At the end of the day, prudent people can only afford to spend a certain fraction of their income to buy housing. House prices must be tied to incomes. Repeat after me: my house is an expense, not an investment.
    Apr 30 10:14 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Are US Inflationary Concerns Inflated?
    All of the BLS inflation numbers are a case of "who you gonna believe, me or your lyin' eyes?"

    The government has motive, means, and opportunity to fudge the numbers at every turn. You be the judge.
    Apr 29 11:46 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Are US Inflationary Concerns Inflated?
    Dr. Perry can we see those graphs overlaid with the increases in wages?
    Apr 29 11:44 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • How Housing Finance Actually Works
    Tom's analysis falls apart when home prices decline by 20-30%. What happens to your refinancing when your formerly 80% LTV loan is now a 95% LTV? Two years ago that was no problem mon. Not so much anymore. And I don't care what your FICO score is.

    The loans that have paid off are the people who made it to the exit in time. It will be interesting to see what becomes of the members of the "class of 2006" who didn't/couldn't refinance.
    Apr 29 09:04 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Jingle Mail: How Do You Value Home Equity?
    Hmm. Let's see a public company that isn't going out of business generally has positive cashflow. What's the cashflow look like on a house (that you live in)? It's all negative in my experience.

    The value of a way OTM call vs. the present value of 15-20 years of carrying costs? No contest.
    Apr 23 09:52 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Financial Ravings Go Mainstream
    Tim P,
    Why do you have the idea that all trends develop so rapidly that CNN is incapable of reporting them?
    One could just as easily argue that if CNN is giving air time to a "bust at FNMA" it is all but inevitable and they are just softening up the public for the eventual bailout.
    Apr 22 10:17 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Mortgage Resets: Subprime May Be Ending, Option ARMs Have Just Begun
    All these charts that I've seen graph only the first reset. A lot of the reset pain has been put off by the massive Fed cuts, but if (more like, when) they are forced to raise rates to curb inflation, the loans that have not defaulted by that time will come right back to the forefront.
    Apr 17 09:06 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Housing Market Tracker - Even Mortgage Brokers Want to Stop Foreclosures
    gordon, your faith in the electorate is commendable if misplaced. 85% of registered voters polled about the housing crisis said they preferred nacho cheese Doritos over cool ranch flavor.
    Apr 10 12:00 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • No Breaking News Here: Katie Couric Likely to Leave CBS
    Katie's problem is that she started believing her own press image. She's an intellectual featherweight who's supposed to project authority. She'll be great on "Katie Couric Live" though. She can do softball interviews with all the lefty actors (you know, the "smart" ones), and can give a platform to whichever dictator-du-jour that the American left wants to stroke.
    Apr 10 10:54 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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