Gene Inger

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    • It's Not a Crisis, But a Chaotic Calamity
      point of clarification: when the curtain rings down on center-stage, we will be basing out at a BOTTOM of the decline in my view; not starting a downtrend; barring a worst-case scenario.

      We were bullish from 2002-early 2007; but called it a 'reflation' and thought they squandered an opportunity to 'square matters' early-on. Just as the upside then was unsustainable, so hopefully will be the downside. Please understand I didn't mean to be complex, as we simplify all this with 'bullet points' for our members. They know our goal is to see the Fed intervene and engage wisely, as belatedly they are doing.

      The cost of 'moral hazard' is not as bad as the alternative. And it was the NY Fed, not the FOMC, that handled this. The NY Fed is in-charge of market integrity; not interest rates. We have argued that this is less a liquidity issue (among banks) and more a solvency issue. Solvency is part of market integrity; not monetary policy.

      Our members know that the next major (not just trading; and in that area we went long around midday for a trade not enduring reversal) strategy shift will be completing our year-plus of bearishness. I hope that clarifies our thinking a bit. However, if these engagements by the Fed(s) falter (we are on thin ice) there is a more somber type alternative. Heavily in cash (most in 20 years for over a year now) we are looking for entry not exit points, but only as the market gives a message that the coast is clear(er). The perfect-storm still roils.

      thanks for the discussion... I appreciate the thoughts..
      Mar 17 22:59 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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