Gene Inger

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    • Oversold and Headed for a Triple Bottom?
      you are 'korrekt'.. a double bottom is essentially our 'w bottom' as called to fail after the breakout-fakeout (above declining tops weeks ago now). It measures some horsing around here and another dramatic break as forward earnings revisions follow. The combination should result in an ensuing S&P drop into the lower 1200's or below in time (as we outlined to our readers).

      I'll reserve sharing our measure; but with a macro short from nearly 1600 (forward roll-adjusted in the S&P futures); we believe by no means is this over; and we're historically usually optimistic relative to many. Kudo's again for the humor and getting it right!

      gene

      gene inger
      ingerletter.com
      Jun 27 10:26 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Counterparty Contingent Liabilities
      A 'simple English' summary is provided to our members. Frankly, while I appreciate your tongue-in-cheek note that you comprehend, I think that a focus less on 'sound bites' and more on understanding the underlying facts of an economic condition (or even Constitutional law) could have helped a lot of Americans and people in the free world avoid numerous pitfalls over the years just past. That people insist on things being all put in 'summary' form or sound-bites; is part of the dumbing-down that all educators should disdain. If people don't take the time to comprehend what is going on behind the scenes; they are more apt to make mistakes (including real estate not just stocks & bonds) and get caught in a panic. The foregoing is not criticizing; but an observation. To many drop the context of discussions and news; and that's part of the problem some of us 'old timers' might suspect. This past weekend; all media described the rioting in Denmark as by 'militant young people'; none came forward to flat-out label it as another effort by extreme Islam to radicalize youth to cause trouble; hence an example of how simplifying to the lowest rather than highest common denominator allows avoiding controversy and/or getting to the heart of the matter.

      What you wanted me to say in the piece above was: Chairman Bernanke bought time for the banks to re-liquefy by signing the Reg W waivers that shifted funds from bank to brokerage sides; allowing markets to dive without taking down the commercial banking system. Hence, a 'crash' may have been avoided accordingly; as the problem in the 1930's was allowing the banking system to implode; not just the markets.

      Hope that helps simplify it for those who don't get it; and I was just sort of trying to convey that the loud critics on TV of Chairman Bernanke are either uninformed or ignoring what he actually did and why he may have done so (and successfully at that). Regards.
      gene inger
      ingerletter.com
      Feb 18 13:52 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Short-Term Hurdles Become Long-Term Obstacles
      thanks.. yes I'm well aware of these factors; as all through the first half of 2007, we tried to enlighten our ingerletter.com members about the falacious perception of 'great liquidity' that was paper-based and thus incapable of making it 'different this time'. That's why we said it was indeed 'different'. .. it was more risky, not less risky, as everyone found out over time.

      Further, I believe today's rate cut is NOT aimed at the public though nominally may help some; but rather maintaining solvency and systemic liquidity, not trying to bail out anybody. That was of course the issue in 1930; so if they can avoid major bank failures, the rest of it can migrate through time, but be mitigated with respect to the Recession turning into some worse or more enduring. And the impact on commercial and plastic is essentially yet to come.

      gene inger
      ingerletter.com
      Jan 22 14:43 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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