kotika98

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    • Tue Dec 2nd 09:39 AM
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      Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      A Little Known Fact, And Good News, About This Crisis
      Very true! Politicians and economists know this, but do you expect anyone to correct this crazy incentive system? No, because seemingly everyone benefits. And in a democratic political system, change only happens if some constituency lobbies and profits from it - in this case it would be the people who rent and also implicitly landlords. Again this makes it highly unlikely to happen.
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    • Mon Dec 1st 10:21 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Should China Raise Wages?
      I see an ominous parallel to the disastrous Roosevelt wage support legislation. That aside, there is a new labor law coming into force that makes temp workers impossible to fire and eligible for pension if their employment had been extended more than twice. I hear this is driving the plant closures in Guangdong as much as the crisis.
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    • Wed Nov 26th 13:03 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Ricardian Equivalence in the Markets Today
      its funny i looked at the actual numbers today - the US is still a rock solid credit, even with Iraq, Dubya, Medicare, and all the stuff from this year.
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    • Sat Nov 22nd 00:53 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Good, The Bad, And the Ugly in Bank Loans
      > Most banks classify homebuilder finance and condo development loans as commercial real estate.

      Nice point! Does this means the CMBS paper contains those too?
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    • Fri Nov 21st 11:01 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      TIPS Strips, Redux
      CPI is already running negative, according to official data, and will continue for some time. Remember, this is the full CPI, not "core" CPI we are talking about. And full CPI has gasoline, natgas, housing and food components, all of which are bound to fall significantly in the next year or so.
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    • Thu Nov 20th 10:19 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Jim Cramer's Stop Trading! Is Steve Ballmer a Diabolical Genius? (11/19/08)
      you should not ever buy any stocks he mentions, or even the sectors he thinks are on fire. But you should listen and learn how he thinks - i have learned alot from him over the years, especially when he was not on TV and was putting more time and effort into his postings on TheStreet.com. Plus, anyway, there are the books which have most of his wisdom spelled out in black and white. Read it, and try to understand - many things sound obvious, but what is important is that the professionals pay attention to them and not to something else.
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    • Thu Nov 20th 10:11 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Jim Cramer's Stop Trading! Is Steve Ballmer a Diabolical Genius? (11/19/08)
      he did well as fund manager, supposedly around 24% compounded over several years. The "Fast Money" recommendations have been looked at, and consensus is that they lose money on average. But it depends on how you count, whether you buy the minute he opens his mouth, or wait a few days like he says you should. Either way, the only people who profit are the very fast guys who can buy the second he mentions a stock and dump it a few minutes later when the crowd starts buying en mass.
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    • Thu Nov 20th 09:54 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      S&P 500 2009 Estimates Are All Over the Map
      you should call the $90 estimate a "normalized earnings" estimate and a 10-12 multiple sounds like a fair multiple on that. The $60 estimate is "trough earnings" and one should not put multples on it, as Cramer said it in the book - buy cyclicals at the bottom when they have the highest multiple, and sell when it at the top when it has the lowest. Makes perfect sense, come to think of it.

      So, if you believe that the earnings can grow 4-5% long term and you think they will be in 10 years at 60*(1+4%*10) = 84 then 600 is your S&P target. But if you think earnings will recover to 90 in 2010 and by 1019 will be 90*(1+4%*9) = 120 then your target on the S&P is 1000-1100 or so.
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    • Wed Nov 19th 23:00 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Yet More Paulson Revisionism
      Are you saying he is lying about his trying to sell Lehman despite Fuld? Because it sure sounds like you are. I personally believe this version. What would you do if you tried to help and that help was rejected - would you not later say they deserved going under?
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    • Tue Nov 18th 08:49 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Testing Ablin's Trend Following Strategy
      i've tested other, slightly more sophisticated momentum stuff, and it works wonderfully between 1950 and 1990, but whiplashes too much in the era since 1990. It is well known that momentum works better in the commodities markets... anyone can get some data on whether the performance of momentum has deteriorated or not in the commodities fuures markets?
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    • Fri Nov 14th 10:12 AM
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      Rating: 0 -2
      Commented on:
      The Downfall of Keynesian Economics and the U.S. (Part 1 of 3)
      the author is probably a "gold bug", so no need to argue about keynesianism and all other theoretical stuff.
      View article »
    • Fri Nov 14th 10:10 AM
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      Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      The Downfall of Keynesian Economics and the U.S. (Part 1 of 3)
      "Keynesian" economics is when the government makes fiscal stimulus in response to credit contraction. And Friedman was generally a proponent of keeping the functioning of the markets free from interference. One does not contradict the other, and Bernanke especially is both someone who believes in the role of government in the credit cycle and also that free markets work best. The thing to understand here is that since the printing of money is the job of the government anyway, there is no suppression of market mechanism involved - the supply of money is simply not part of the free market system.
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    • Wed Nov 12th 12:00 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bust-Up, Not Bailout
      also, dont forget, bankruptcy does not mean closing the doors forever. At least it didnt have to mean that, if they did it a year or two ago. Most likely GM would continue like before the next day after bankruptcy, only that their pension, healthcare and other obligations would be wiped out allowing for a fresh start.
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    • Wed Nov 12th 11:56 AM
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      Rating: 0 -1
      Commented on:
      Bust-Up, Not Bailout
      i was wanderng about this 5 year time to develop a car myself for over 10 years now. I mean, Germans during WWII had a policy to not develop any weapon systems if it was going to take more than 6 months (they had unrealistic ideas on how long the war would last). And russians actually did develop tanks and airplanes on that kind of schedule, because Stalin made it understood that heads would roll, literally.

      But 5 years to develop a car? Wake up.
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    • Wed Nov 12th 11:51 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      GE, Goldman Bond Spreads: Unrealistic and Unsustainable
      on second thought, the poster before, JasonC, is also right - most likely the CDS has a bid-ask spread 400 bps wide, depending on counterparty.
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