Channon

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    • Wed Nov 12th 16:48 PM
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      Rating: +3 0
      Commented on:
      Crocs (CROX): Q3 EPS of -$1.79 vs. consensus of $0.02. Revenue of $174M (-32%) vs. $202M. (PR)
      CROX is still sitting on cash. Mgmt needs to read the writing (written in giant bold letters) on the way and shut the company down before losing $50MM next quarter and another $40MM the quarter after that... Nobody wants $35 plastic (sorry, Croslight™) shoes right now.
      View news story »
    • Tue Nov 4th 10:21 AM
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      Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      Apple Rumors: Mac Upgrades and iPhone Production Drop
      There could be a 40% cut, but only if Apple had ramped up production (temporarily) FAR more than anyone had thought. It would not be the first time an analyst reported on "bad news" that was only bad in the context of omitting the "good". As usually, we should all ignore the analysts when they chime in, and do our own research, and reach our own conclusions. Only then will we buy before the bull runs and sell before the pullbacks.
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 23rd 19:03 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Apple's 'Real' Earnings: Up Almost 125%
      Andy,

      Save me some brain damage here: how much iPhone revenue is ALREADY in the bag for next quarter based on phone sales through 9/30?

      It seems to me that the difference between the $2.69 (Non-GAAP) and $1.26 (GAAP) = $1.43 is going to be split over the next 7 quarters, for $0.20 per share already in the bag. That also means 20 cents of this quarter's $1.26 was 3G iPhone. 2.5G revenue was probably about $0.18/share (based on the relative sales to date of 2.5G v 3.0G, and recognizing we're still in the period during which all 2.5G phones are still hitting the books) leaving $0.88/share as non-iPhone net profit this past quarter.

      For next quarter start with the 20 cents (next quarter's share of all the 3G phone profit through Sept 30), add 18 cents (next quarter's share of all the 2.5G phone profit), and AAPL has already bagged $0.38/share.

      If that's the case, what in the world is Oppenheimer seeing with his $1.06 low-end estimate?!? His worst-case scenario is $0.68/share of non-iPhone net, which is really hard to imagine.

      For starters, in the just-completed quarter, AAPL did $0.88 in non-iPhone revenue. Next, consider iPhone sales falling off a cliff this quarter. Unlikely, but what is that? 3.5MM phones for $0.10/share current-quarter GAAP net? To hit $1.06, AAPL would only need to do $0.58/share of non-iPhone net, compared to the $0.88 just done, a 35% drop-off in business.

      In short, $1.06 just isn't a real possibility, and it makes me wonder if Oppenheimer is in the group that doesn't fully understand the impact of GAAP!!!

      But, playing devil's advocate, and assuming iPhone sales fall 50% for current quarter and all else stays completely flat, current quarter will still come in at $1.36, right?

      Would love to hear your comments.
      View article »
    • Mon Oct 20th 18:40 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      AT&T: PE Ratios When Risk Abates
      Terrible cash flow from the iPhone, thanks to the subsidy they are paying Apple. Can likely wait a quarter or two to get into T; it may go up briefly, but if the iPhone is as great as the bulls suggest, the subsidies will hurt all the way to the expiration of the exclusivity agreement.
      View article »
    • Fri Oct 17th 11:05 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Google: 3Q Results Reveal Chinks in the Armor
      Offgrid, I totally agree. And a profit that comes from sales during normal course of business. No leverage, no debt.

      When the economy turns, Google should do very well. First in the US, then globally.
      View article »
    • Tue Oct 14th 00:25 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Trying to Make Sense of Cramer's Advice
      Today, 10/13:

      Lightning Roung: "Microsoft, like a lot of stocks, went up Monday, I can’t recommend it at present levels after it just moved 3 points."

      Stop Trading: "[Microsoft is] a cheap stock. Microsoft shouldn't be that cheap, given the fact that it's got a powerful franchise and how they dodged the bullet with Yahoo!"

      Yes people make mistakes. Some people calm down, focus, learn from their mistakes, and become a better professional. Some, not all.
      View article »
    • Mon Oct 13th 17:10 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Trying to Make Sense of Cramer's Advice
      Because Cramer moves stocks. Just look at the Cramer Effect on Clean Energy Systems. He moved it from $16 to $20. After a few days, the Cramer Effect wore off (PhD dissertations have actually been written about this). One can make money off of Cramer without taking Cramer's advice. In short, Cramer and his minions move stocks, so investors need to listen to what he says. At least, while he still has a show...
      View article »
    • Mon Oct 13th 16:48 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Trying to Make Sense of Cramer's Advice
      Manic bipolar.

      I have the daily "Cramer" emails from SA, so I can search back through easily and see the contradictions. Google at $500 was a "buy of a lifetime"; a couple of weeks later, Google at $400 was overpriced. Buy Apple at $140, but then don't buy at $100.

      Very recently, doing the opposite of Cramer was proving to be very lucrative. On that, it's too bad that he's now openly taking both positions. I was enjoying doing the opposite.
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 8th 18:24 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      No Bailouts, Even if Congress Approves Them
      It was my understanding that GS had $20BB+ of exposure to AIG. GS says that was hedged, but by whom -- LEH? If GS did have $20BB of AIG exposure, Paulson may have saved GS.


      On Oct 02 06:46 PM Owen wrote:

      > Contrary to your claim, Washington didn't keep Goldman Sachs afloat.
      > Goldman Sachs kept itself afloat. It never asked for any Federal
      > assistance, nor does it need any.
      View article »
    • Sun Oct 5th 12:39 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      10 Ways the Financial Meltdown Impacts Tech
      Regarding point #9, consumers cutting back on spending, this will remain a true statement in the aggregate, but may not extend to all aspects of consumer spending. As consumer spending has exploded this past decade, it has almost become a self-medicated antidepressant. Will "gadgets" suffer? Perhaps, but it was after 9/11 and during that recession that the iPod exploded in popularity, a nice little "pick-me-up" for depressed Americans.

      How does this relate to this article? Smart investors know that missed opportunities are a lot better than being short and wrong. Be more careful about betting on the list of "negative impacts" than the list of "positives". Some of these stocks are already off more than 50%, a sizable haircut. There's more to gain by looking for the companies that are oversold than by betting on more downside. Long term, we all would probably agree that Google will eventually trade above $386, and Apple surely above $97.
      View article »
    • Sun Oct 5th 12:09 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bailout Backfire and the Ticking Debt Time Bomb
      The growth during the Reagan and Bush Jr periods are staggering. Not to inject politics into a serious discussion, but clearly there's a lesson here.
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 14th 10:42 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Apple a Better Stock Than Google?
      Past growth comparison is silly; Apple was significantly undervalued at a time when many thought it wouldn't be a going concern. Why not compare that period of Apple to Google when it was just Brin/Page's paper at Stanford. From an idea to $500/share is infinite growth, which it doesn't take a mathematician to tell you is a lot more impressive than 10-fold growth.

      Looking forward, they both have tremendous growth potential internationally, hence the high P/E. Perhaps Google has less growth potential, but it also has less competition and better margins. Google has a more attractive PEG ratio.

      Instead of this inane debate, why not own both stocks? There are not many companies right now that even have foreseeable growth potential!
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 14th 10:31 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Apple's Interesting Challenge with Its Best Buy Deal
      Typical "theory supported by confirmation bias."

      The iPod, as pointed out, is perfect counterexample. An iPod didn't end up in every household in the world because it was rare or hard to get (nobody wants them because everyone is buying them?!?); in fact, the less expensive nano iPods proved more successful. The iPod was one of the best tech product successes ever because of product/software design and integration. Great product, great design, great quality, fantastic software integration (because it came from a company that understands product design, user interface and software.) Apple is one of VERY few companies that can roll out hardware/software pairs, let alone do it well. And its resources for doing so keep groing.
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    • Wed Jul 23rd 17:15 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Things You Would Never Have Said Eight Days Ago
      BTW, can the popularity of the ETFs such as SKF and UYG be adding to the volatility - that is, as big money is shifting from short to long, are firms taking advantage of the arbitrage opportunities and moving the prices underlying securities, causing more interest in going long?
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 23rd 17:07 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Things You Would Never Have Said Eight Days Ago
      Probably the closest I will have ever come to making a killing on options, but the timing has been so incredibly hard even when the movement and duration were perfectly called. WB moving +40% in the last 45 minutes after such horrendous results?! Painful.
      View article »