Abbaman7

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    • Sat Oct 4th 18:31 PM
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      The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt
      SB-tiger sounds as if he has his finger on the pulse of what is going on with the AG stocks but it turns out his finger is finding a pulse in jello. Conflating commodity prices with nutrient prices sounds reasonable but has no actual correlation; to wit: nutrient prices have not come down but share prices of the nutrient companies have plummeted. This is exactly the opposite of what we were told to expect with the share price decline FOLLOWING a decline in the relevant commodity prices. So we really need to look elsewhere for a coherent explanation. All this 'bubble' talk is so much blah, blah; sounds are trying to come out but nothing is being said. There is no reduction in the demand for key nutrients like potash as customers are all on allocation. Supply increases are years away if at all and then largely a result of expansion by the very companies whose shares were blown away.

      I am not saying 'buy,buy,buy' in this sick environment. Just that companies, say, like Mosaic, that now trade at less than 3 times earnings but are sitting on billions of cash and generating billions more with no end in sight given their current growth rate, are companies more likely than not to make their shareholders richer, not poorer, in years to come.
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    • Fri Oct 3rd 22:31 PM
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      The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt
      Free cash flow. Nothing fancy. Just walking around money. The AG stocks that have gotten their share prices destroyed nevertheless essentially print money and they will continue to. Every one of them could just buy back their public stock relentlessly followed by massive dividend payouts when the growth slows. PCA has already begun to do this with successive 5% repurchases and Agrium has just announced its 5% program. MOS will likely follow. What better use of their money can there be when their stocks are so dirt cheap? I believe these stocks will be back, big time.
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    • Wed Oct 1st 08:15 AM
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      Trying to Defend Mosaic
      Majority control of Mosaic is held by Cargill. Please explain how anyone is going to wrest control of this company if Cargill is not amenable to selling.
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    • Mon Sep 1st 18:38 PM
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      Potash Corp. Poised to Double Market Capitalization
      I concur with JG. JPMorgan has POT earning $25 per share for 2009. If JPM is correct, POT would have a P/E ratio of 17 were it to hit Carpenter's $425 target, not 27. 2008 earnings should come in at a minimum of $12 per share, which means that it is currently trading at less than a 15 P/E. The voluble POT CEO, Bill Doyle, has not withdrawn his guidance for the quarter despite the strike so my guess is that things are still swimming along despite current labor difficulties.
      Peter Lynch used to say that compounded annual earnings growth is the key to share appreciation. There is no reason to expect that POT, with its great earnings and revenue prospects, will prove an exception to Lynch's rule.
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    • Fri Jul 25th 08:42 AM
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      Penn West Energy Trust: My $50 Price Target
      Despite fairly compelling logic and analysis, it turns out that PWE is probably an excellent $25-$30 stock rather than a $50 dollar one. Despite high oil and NG prices, PWE has continued to fall and has rarely had a decent day over the past 2 months. Indeed, its decline seems attributable to both rises and declines in energy prices. So for the near term, it appears to have been a poor investment choice.

      Because of its yield, some kind of floor exists for its share price so over say the next year or two, those, like me, who were imprudent enough to purchase PWE in the low 30's will likely recoup their losses and show some gains eventually. Too bad. This looked like a good idea at the time...
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    • Tue Jul 22nd 12:09 PM
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      The Agriculture Boom Goes Bust
      Andrew, read again what you quoted on page 29 of Mosaic's annual report where they said IF they could not recover increases in energy costs through higher prices, THEN there could be a material effect on their business. Well, there have been huge price increases in their nutrients sold that should more than offset the higher energy prices. So you are right. Page 29 said it all. You just have to know what you are reading.
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    • Sun Jul 20th 14:21 PM
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      UBS Raises PotashCorp and Agrium's Price Targets - Again
      Author correct and JP incorrect with regard to current potash selling prices:

      Canpotex Announces Higher Spot Market Pricing
      Canpotex confirms that it has now concluded significant volumes for shipment to Asian spot markets in the fourth quarter at a price level of USD 1000 for standard grade material ($1025 for granular grade). As a result, Canpotex is advising it's customers that all new sales for shipment through the balance of 2008 will be priced at these new and higher levels. The new pricing will also apply to all new sales to customers in Brazil and Latin America.

      These new and higher price levels are supported by continued strong offshore potash demand and by the historically low potash working inventories that have resulted from record demand this year. These factors have created an extremely tight supply situation for potash and this supply/demand scenario is expected to continue into 2009.

      Perhaps JP would now like to revise and extend his remarks.
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    • Thu Jun 5th 17:18 PM
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      Potash Setting Up to Rally?
      Looks like you called this one, Matthew.

      Barry
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    • Tue Jun 3rd 11:42 AM
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      Penn West Energy Trust: My $50 Price Target
      The recently announced $1.5 billion short form shelf registration to raise capital for various entity purposes usually takes the form of a short term share price dilution for existing holders. Is that your reading too, Jack?
      Perhaps the recent weakness in PWE's share price is a reflection, inter alia, of concerns regarding this even as oil prices have stiffened somewhat and gas prices have risen.
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    • Thu May 22nd 20:21 PM
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      Penn West Energy Trust: My $50 Price Target
      Your analysis and David Bui's sound so diametrically opposed to one another that one has the sense that you are each writing about a different entity. Perhaps Q2 will be decisive in terms of which way the wind is blowing. You confidently maintain that a fairly spectacular quarter is in store while David continues to be sceptical of PWE's near term and long term future even as he looks at the very same data. One of you, it seems, is destined to do what people around here do all the time in the Washington,DC area: revise and extend one's remarks. I bought PWE before you came out with your original piece, Jack, and will continue to hold onto my units--at least until I can see what is behind the Q2 curtain. May the only surprises be welcome ones.
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