the_Bird

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    • Tue Nov 25th 07:44 AM
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      Rating: +2 -1
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      Tying Interest Rates to CDS Is a Recipe for Main Street Disaster
      Nailed it. People are finally starting to recognize how some of these frauds have been perputated. Put on some seemingly legitimate short positions in the regulated market, collude in the unregulated CDS market and cause a panic in the common shares (and bonds). Having the debt's interest rates linked to CDS rates makes this worse, but since so many investors today are looking at the CDS markets for clues about who is next to collapse, even companies without that direct exposure to the CDS market are at risk. A clearinghouse is absolutely needed.
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    • Thu Nov 20th 07:53 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
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      My Reconsideration: Why Share Buybacks Are Pointless
      Joe, that's the theory - but how does that play out IRL? Share buybacks aren't inherently bad, but they are too often used as a means to hide what management is really doing; granting themselves outsized, equity-heavy compensation packages. Do a big buyback ("Hey, it's great for the shareholders!") and gloss over the huge amounts granted to senior management ("It aligns our interests! It gives us incentive!").

      I'm a fan of cleanliness. Give me cash in my pocket. Give senior execs a fair amount of compensation, but make that transparent. Don't use buybacks to cloud the effect of exactly how much is being spent.

      So, yeah, neither good nor bad, inherently - but subject to abuse.
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    • Wed Nov 19th 13:48 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
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      My Reconsideration: Why Share Buybacks Are Pointless
      Buybacks are used far too often to mask the effect of making large, dillutive grants of stock and stock options. As a shareholder, I'd much rather have the cash in my pocket via a dividend, though; XOM as an example, *should* be yielding 4% - 5%, not 2%. Hell with the theoretically-higher EPS because you did a buyback; I'd rather just have the cash.
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    • Tue Mar 11th 15:57 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
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      Spitzer: Self-Destruction
      It's pure shadendfreude, compounded by the fact that Spitzer has probably made more enemies than anybody else in politics. Everyone that I talk to is pissed off about the hypocricy; if he weren't so in-your-face about his moral purity, he might have been able to survive this.
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    • Mon Mar 3rd 18:13 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Some Muni Bonds Appear Screaming Buys Here
      There's also a HUGE premium being paid for liquidity today. People want TREASURIES, nothing else will do. I sold an eighteen month Treasury note for a client today at a yield under 1.6%; there was no way we could walk away from the premium we were being paid on that bond. Retail client, I could sell the T at a 1.6% yield, buy an 18-month CD ~3.6%, and pick up 200bp for nothing more than giving up some liquidity (ended up doing some longer-term stuff in the muni market, but the point remains).

      Unless the market thinks overnight rates are going to 50bp in the next year, T-rates as low as they are is purely a panic move. Everyone wants Treasuries, nothing else, because they are scared sh*tless of holding paper that they might have trouble getting a bid on in a few months. It's ALL about liquidity today.
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    • Tue Jan 15th 09:02 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
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      Sears Holdings' True Value
      As to the "Brand Value" aspect of the argument, anybody who's been in the market for lots of tools and lots of appliances for a new house knows that part of the Sears cost-cutting initiatives has resulted in a MASSIVE deterioration in the quality of the Kensmore and Craftsman brands. Craftsman tools, at least those targetted at the typical consumer (rather than the professional) are garbage. Kenmore appliances have also developed a reputation for being trash.

      So, you've got a crappy retailer (if you've got a clean, well-stocked Sears store, I guess that makes one of us)... with a continued, long-term decline in same-store sales... in an environment that's likely going to see continued deterioration in overall retail sales... with another potential time bomb waiting of credit card receivables (my opinion, the "new subprime" for 2008)... with real estate holdings that are no longer appreciating in value... and deteriorating brand quality....

      What's the bull case again?
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    • Tue Jan 15th 08:55 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Sears' Lampert: How Much Trouble Is “The Next Warren Buffett” In?
      Well, that didn't tell me anything that wasn't already immediately obvious...
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    • Fri Jan 11th 09:29 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Real Story on Countrywide: Fed Behind the Deal?
      While not denying the possibilty/probabilty that information on the deal was leaked, it also didn't take a genius to realize that there was the potential for a HUGE short-squeeze on CFC. Even with all of the problems, the sector looked massively oversold, and anyone buying calls stood to make a fat, quick profit on exactly the kind of bounce that occured. Bear market rallies are the most ferocious, mostly because of the short-covering.
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    • Thu Nov 1st 09:15 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
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      No Point in Bottom-Fishing the Homebuilders
      There's so much inventory out there right now, it's going to be a LONG time before it all gets cleared out - so the illiquid assets on their books are even more illiquid that they would be in a "normal" environment. Moreover, the severe pullback in availablity of subprime/alt-A mortgages means that most of the people who might typical "upgrade" from being renters to homeowners just are not going to be able to do so; how's that inventory going to get absorbed? And - this is all in the context of an economy and jobs market that remains, if not great, *reasonably* robust? How does all of this look if we go into a recession? I don't think one is imminent, but I would say there's probably a 30% or so chance we see a recession develop in the next 12-18 months.

      So yeah - homebuilders will have little rallies, mostly short-covering. There are a handful of stocks out there I've found where 80% - 90% of the float has been sold short; there's some real short-term danger there, SPF rallying from $3.71 to $5.72 in a week and a half looks like a classic squeeze. But - there's a lot of these companies that you'll never have to cover (if you can find any shares to short!)
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    • Thu Sep 27th 09:29 AM
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      Gold Has More To Run, Whatever The Benchmark
      I don't see the validity of comparing the DJIA to gold prices, at all. Gold is gold; it's an asset without intrinsic earnings ability. DJIA represents companies that have and will continue to grow profits out into the future. GE, as a proxy for the DJIA, earned $0.15 per share in 1981 and is expected to earn $2.20 this year; of course it's stock price (and the DJIA) has gone up over time to reflect this. How does that bear ANY relationship to what value gold might have?

      The gold that someone bought and put in a vault thirty years ago is the exact same gold that's sitting in that vault today; General Electic obviously is not. There's just no logical relationship between those two values.
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    • Fri Sep 21st 09:13 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
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      The 'Scandal' Of Options Backdating
      How can you ignore the opportunity cost, though? It's not a direct expense item, but the company *should* have gotten $300 for the shares it sold, not $200. It's dilutive to the existing shareholders.
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    • Wed Sep 19th 10:39 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Oil Scam Driving Crude Over $80
      I'm going to join the chorus of folks asking why someone who clearly does not understand how futures markets work allowed to publish a piece about the futures market on seekingalpha?
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    • Wed Aug 29th 11:53 AM
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      Welcome to the New Seeking Alpha
      Nice to hear. I spend a fair amount of time at social networking sites related to my hobbies, but I have not yet found a community of investment personnel (and well-informed "amateurs") that is of any value. If Seeking Alpha goes in that route - that would be wonderful.
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    • Wed Aug 29th 11:02 AM
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      Welcome to the New Seeking Alpha
      I love this site, and by and large I like the new layout...

      One area where it could stand some improvement, however, is with the comments. Under "My Seeking Alpha," I would love to have the option to see comments that I have posted, and ideally if there have been additional responses after the fact. Anything to help build a community, I know there are tons and tons of smart people around here, being able to debate and kick ideas around would take this site to a different level.
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    • Mon Aug 27th 13:04 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
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      Bill Gross Wants A PIMCO Bailout
      Any analysis of fixed income using Morningstar data is inherently flawed because Morningstar's systems are not nearly sophisticated enough on the FI side to reflect PIMCO's use of futures, swaps, and other derivatives. Looking at the five largest holdings is essentially irrelevant. In fact, if you watched the performance of PTTRX during the market turmoil (I watch this fund daily), you'd see that it has performed exceptionally well during the downturn - reflecting the fact that Gross has a ton of exposure to the very high quality securities that do NOT need "bailing out."

      The fund's medicore three-year record also bests 82% of all its intermediate-bond fund peers, so I guess all bond funds are worthless, right? I mean, even the best bond funds didn't beat the money market rate over this particular three year period, so they're worthless, eh?
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