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Wise Energy Use Stocks: Investing in Efficient Lighting

by: Tom Konrad October 13, 2008 | about stocks: CREE / LSCG.OB / PHG    
Tom Konrad

Tom Konrad

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Opportunity

On Friday, October 10, 2008 , I stopped being bearish for the first time since the 1990s.  My long term expectation of a crash that didn't come had been undermining my self confidence.  Even the decline in 2001 and 2002 had not seemed severe enough, given the financial imbalances in the system.  I had begun to worry that I might be genetically bearish, and that my worries had nothing to do with a market that was greatly overvalued.

I am relieved to say that I am not a permabear, and that the market as a whole now seems to me to be fairly valued.  Some sectors and many stocks are still overvalued, but bargains are there for those who look.  I don’t know where the market will go from here, but I now feel that we've seen the worst of what is likely to happen, even if the market has farther to fall.  We have just seen two weeks where the largest investors in the market have been forced to sell everything they could in order to meet margin calls and cover debts.  The wildcard is how long such distress selling will continue.

Anyone who currently has cash on hand and the courage to buy is in an enviable position.  Selling has been indiscriminate, with the best companies being sold as hard as the worst.  Now is the time to begin buying quality companies at a large discount to their true value.  Forced selling may continue for a while yet, but fundamental buyers are beginning to move into the market, and the best companies may never be this cheap again.

Buy Carefully

I am not calling a bottom here for the market as a whole.  I would not be surprised if the Dow falls as low as 7000, but I do think that the current mispricings from forced selling are as extreme as they are likely to get.  Now is not the time to buy a market index, be it a general market fund, or a green mutual fund or ETF.  

It is extremely timely that I have already begun a series of articles looking into companies which help people and businesses save money by using energy more efficiently.  Energy Efficiency seems to be the most likely alternative energy sector to benefit from an extended recession or depression.  With that said, I will continue my look into the liquidity of companies in the Wise Energy Use Index.  A liquidity screen is a good way to quickly eliminate companies from consideration before you've wasted too much time researching them.

Wise Energy Use Stocks, Part 2: Lighting

Philips (PHG):  Philips is a long time favorite of mine, has a current ratio of 1.7, and operating cash flow of $1.7 Billion.  With $3.3 Billion on hand, Philips may be able to continue its acquisition of other lighting firms at reduced prices, and cement its world leadership in efficient lighting.  Energy efficient lighting upgrades typically have paybacks of less than two years, and are a staple of utility demand side management programs.

Cree, Inc. (CREE): Cree is a leader in bright white LEDs.  With no debt, and a current ratio of over 4, operating cash flow of $312 million, Cree should be able to weather a financial storm, despite trouble at a major customer.  Cree may even use its healthy balance sheet for a small acquisition or two.

Lighting Science Group (LSCG.OB): Lighting Science is a manufacturer of LED fixtures, including replacements for normal incandescent household bulbs.  Although the industry is poised for explosive growth in 1-2 years as costs fall, Lighting Science may not survive to benefit.  The company has a marginal current ratio of 1.35, but its twelve month operating cash loss of $19M is far in excess of both its current assets less current liabilities and cash on hand ($2.8M.)  Despite recent good news in a patent case with Philips, and resolution of a dispute with the former CEO, Lighting Science will be in a bind if credit markets continue to be tight.  

According to Bill Paul of Energy Tech Stocks, the company is in his Wise Energy Use Index because it is in a great industry, and a rising tide floats all boats.  That had been my reasoning when I bought the company for myself, and recommended it as a speculative play in 2008, but now I think that a rising tide only floats those boats that don't sink first.  I decided to sell my stake while writing this article.  

Philips may consider buying Lighting Science now that it has been stymied in its patent dispute, but holders of the stock should not count on this to raise the stock price significantly.  Just as Barclays chose to wait and buy Lehman's core assets out of bankruptcy, a potential acquirer of Lighting Science might also choose to wait for the LED Light Bankruptcy Special.   Other potential acquirers include Cree, Osram Sylvania, a division of Siemens (SI), and General Electric (GE).

DISCLOSURE: Tom Konrad and/or his clients own PHG, CREE, GE, and SI.

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This article has 6 comments:

  •  
    Oct 13 08:06 AM
    Charles and Covard has been a miniscule Cree customer, not a major customer. Those substrate purchases have not even been a blip on the radar for Cree. Get your facts right.
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 13 09:19 AM
    CREE has been around for over a decade, its claim to fame has been just out of reach during that entire time frame. In 2000 it bubbled to around $105 and hasn't been close since.

    Its a trading vehicle whose earnings are almost nonexistent.
    That being said, buying in here around $20 and some more if it drops to the mid-teens, will allow you a chance to sell around $30 to repeat the process.
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 13 01:00 PM
    CREE seems to have poor management that is not focused leveraging its technology to make money. I've been following them for years. They always seem full of promise, but never deliver.
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 13 01:03 PM
    Another strike against CREE. It seems like these lighting markets are going to be dominated by the giants like GE and Sylvania and Philips.
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 16 11:42 AM
    Where can I get a job writing articles building up companies in which I own stock. I own stock in an alternative energy company that Konrad ran down, all but saying they should be investigated. Later I found out he was running down the company because he had been put on hold a couple times he called the CFO. Of course he doesn't own stock in that company. I no longer trust his judgement.
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 19 02:10 AM
    I would also agree. I think Osram, Sylvania, Philips, and GE are more likely to develop and package high power light weight LED fixtures. But the market is open to other alternatives. The Chinese may end up producing most of the LED lights and fixtures even if it's under the name of another company.
    Reply
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