What Was Left Out of the Jobs Report

This article has 24 comments:

•  
  john s.
  gordon

  Jul 04 08:06 AM
  u.s.a. has been in a recession since june 2007, the politicians refuse to discuss this.
  > jack
•  
  Seamus
  O'Bannion

  Jul 04 08:18 AM
  Dear Mish,
  
  Given what's been happening to bond interest for hospitals, schools, & municipalities, combined w/ the shrinking tax base resulting from the downward reassessment of property values, I think we can count on solid dis-employment beginning in the present quarter & continuing into the end of the year from that extremely large service sector. US Gov Incorporated will have to be very creative to mask that one.
  
  I hope any of your readers who might still be clinging to the hope of "short & shallow" will rethink any positions they might have in retail as well as in medical equipment tech stocks. There are great companies in those fields, but they face declining economic demand.
  
  Best,
  Seamus O'Bannion.
  
  (Like the new photo, by the way; I'd submit one, but my face keeps breaking cameras.)
  
  SOB.
•  
  fatcat

  Jul 04 08:19 AM
  Mish,you're making my hair hurt...
•  
  deaverb

  Jul 04 09:08 AM

  My Website
  The key factor in employment, I think, is the warp speed improvement in productivity and efficiency. At a recent grocery show, all grocers (e.g., Kroger profit up 15%) reported a great 2nd quarter--less trips; more purchases per trip; faster processing through register; easier replenishment. McDonald's reports same; ditto Dollar Tree, Big Lots, and other value retailers, including the elephant itself, Wal-Mart.
  
  Then see the iPhone: 4 in 1. Was going to get a Garmin for car; iPhone had the same (whoops, there goes one purchase down the drain; actually 3 in the family). No more watch, use iPhone; no more Laptop on the road, use iPhone.
  
  All of this is saving consumers a lot of money. Our customers and suppliers are both communicating more simply and cheaper--and therefore our transaction costs are down--which relates to less labor on all fronts.
  
  This is the real story. Used to throw out 4 bags of paper every week; now recycle them; now only 1 bag every 2 weeks because the paperless society is upon us. Pay bills by mail; bye bye 42 cent stamps, envelopes, trip to PO, etc. and so on.
  
  In simple terms, employers can do far more with far less people--and there is still a ton of fat out there.
•  
  LisaH

  Jul 04 09:24 AM
  I agree that unemployment numbers will continue to rise. My husband was laid off from a financial institution in December. He has received severance pay since then and recently found a new job. He won't even show up in the unemployment numbers, but how many others will because after July they will still be unemployed. He was fortunate because he was an IT worker employed in the financial sector so he can look for work at any business, but those with financial positions (accountants, mortgage, etc.) will have a tougher time finding something new. So I guess the long and short of what I want to say is just wait until the Aug. and Sep. unemployment numbers are reported. I think that is when the true picture will be apparent.
•  
  User 143879

  Jul 04 09:38 AM
  Mish is hitting the nail right on the head. The economy is definitely is a recession and I'm afraid it's going to be a fairly protracted one -- and tha'ts what the stock market is trying to tell us, even though we're overdue for a bounce lasting a couple of weeks.
  
  Astute bond expert Hoisington in Austin, Texas has been contending all year long that the U.S. economy is going into a recession that won't be over for a fairly long time. I think he's going to be right too even though long-term T-bonds have been taking a hit the last few months but are finally bouncing back somewhat. They've probably been spooked by inflation -- something that ought to begin subsiding if this recession gets a lot worse.
  
  Buddy
•  
  notsosmart

  Jul 04 10:10 AM

  My Website
  you cant believe any figures(inflation,unem... that our govt gives us.the convoluted lying & thinking has become a way of life in dc.take the time to listen to the hearings.how sad for this country.
•  
  Will Rahal

  Jul 04 10:45 AM

  My Website
  Wages and wealth are dropping rapidly.
  These are the driving force behind the US economy.
  As earnings decrease, the only catalyst for the stock market improvement, is a drop in commodity prices.
  After a rally, the strong commodity-related sectors will also contribute to further stock market declines.
  
•  
  User 220735

  Jul 04 10:49 AM
  THIS SORT OF ANALYSIS NEEDS TO BE DONE ON THE CPI AND PRODUCER PRICE NUMBERS AS WELL.THE GOVERNMENT CONTINUES TO PUT OUT NUMBERS THAT FLY IN THE FACE OF MOST PEOPLE'S EVERYDAY EXPERIENCE.THE PUNDITS GO ON MAKING FORECASTS BASED ON THE FALLACIOUS STATISTICS.
•  
  galewhitaker

  Jul 04 11:30 AM

  My Website
  Even Dubya dosen't start his speeches by saying "our economy is strong" (what ever that means). These phony employment numbers are just more of the Bush administration putting lipstick on a pig to try to confuse Republican voters who may have decided to jump the fence and vote for Obama.
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  nScout

  Jul 04 11:32 AM
  Very good analysis. Thanks.
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  crookedwood

  Jul 04 11:35 AM
  Great article. Good analysis. More need to digest this information. When the common man believes the data the government presents is flawed and I believe they do, then they have no faith in the government to address the issues. The man and woman in the street know the rate of 5.5% unemployment is false. The result of this in many households is the fact that people will pull back on spending even more and the cycle compounds? Even the government figures will be 6.5% by end of year. AJK
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  Jplout

  Jul 04 12:12 PM
  Wake up and smell the SH@#% America.
  Yes they are lying to us, and they will continue to lie because the thieves in charge know that no one will do anything about it.
  What we need is an old fashion revolution to take our country back.
  I will be watching this depression from Costa Rica and will come back in 5 years to nibble on the carcass.
  (I hear you can buy Hummers really cheap.)
  Keep drinking the Kool-aid.
  Stop complaining and start organizing
  
•  
  gordon

  Jul 04 12:51 PM
  The corrupt BLS, starting with the Commissioner APPOINTED BY BUSH in 2007, still has not been publically challenged and investigated. 86,000 phantom LEISURE/HOSPITALITY jobs were "birthed"? Has anyone checked the solvency of restaurants and hotels lately? The BLS is trying to pump this group of phantom jobs because, unlike manufacturing, it's hard to cross-reference another index to overtly prove it wrong.
  
  compare their "birthing" to year-over-year>
  bigpicture.typepad.com...
  
  
•  
  AvlGuy

  Jul 04 12:59 PM
  Good job Mish.
  I find that biz people who know better and yet insist on citing these bogus labor and GDP and CPI numbers when conversing, to be 1) wanting in honesty and character; or 2) battling emotional denial about whats about to happen to their portfolios, family business, company, industry or locale.
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  gordon

  Jul 04 01:04 PM
  USER- good point. The CPI(deflater) is corruptly understated as imput for the GDP, making the GDP negative for at least 3-6 months, imo.
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  kmne68

  Jul 04 01:30 PM
  The cynicism and negativity here floors me. How do you people make it through the day? I would be suicidal with your collective outlook.
•  
  WAKEUP

  Jul 04 05:16 PM
  DEAR MICHAEL SHEDLOCK: Sez me to you, with a sigh, and a shrug of my rhetorical/philosophic... shoulders: When you write, "Every month I say the same nearly the same thing. ," I want to scream, 'ME, TOO!" For about a year, now, I have been posting my thoughts here, on Seeking Alpha, as to things financial and the way they relate to where this country is apparently heading. I long ago pointed out that the federal government brazenly lies to its citizens about (among many other things) the unemployment rate. I pointed out that, "If you start counting all the people that want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is." I have stated repeatedly that the true unemployment rate at almost any given time is at least twice what the federal government claims it is. I have also pointed out, in previous postings, that what is coming, soon, regarding unemployment reality is going to be MUCH WORSE than we are used to. I pointed out that it will not be just Joe Six Pack, who has no particular skills, who will be out of a job. It will be professionals, et. al., too, as you are now reporting. I also pointed out, months before anyone with "credentials"... would admit, that the housing market was oozing its way toward the sewer. Of course, almost everyone except for a few real estate agents knows that the housing market IS the sewer, now. What has always perplexed me about this site is how many negative responses a non-professional observer of financial events and trends gets, but then when a pro like yourself writes the SAME THING, all hands seem to agree that you're right. It occurred to me, recently, that if an individual investor waits until a pro is willing to put his name on a piece of writing, about, say a good or bad stock, or about a good or bad trend, in housing, etc., that it is almost inevitable that the individual investor is always going to be behind the curve of what is happening. How do these guys make any money, in the market? (A better question may be, "DO they actually make any money, in the market?")
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  silver wink

  Jul 05 04:19 AM
  hey, could the BS, sorry, BLS be a leading indicator, when they start subtracting jobs the economy is recovering, wait for it............
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  trader_murf

  Jul 05 07:02 PM
  Good analysis, what I have figured intuitively and from my experience. And hey, kmne68 guess you still have a job, don't need to watch dollars spent in the supermarket, were long oil, with impeccable timing in Ag and materials and are now short everything else! Well, duck and cover and good luck to all!
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  secmaven

  Jul 05 09:18 PM
  Put yourself in the position of the handlers of the data on GDP, jobs, unemployment, inflation. If actual numbers were reported the downward spiral would accelerate. If you think things are bad now, honesty in reporting would only make them worse. We cannot afford this honesty.
  
  
•  
  User 143879

  Jul 06 11:38 AM
  WAKEUP --
  
  Sounds like you've been warning everyone on this site of what's in store for the U.S. for a long time. I'm new to this forum, but have been preparing for the worst for a long time -- despite all the optimistic outcomes being predicted by a majority of the so-called economic experts.
•  
  iThinkBig

  Jul 06 05:33 PM

  My Website
  Hey Jplout - I am buying a place in Costa Rica as well, because it has stayed relatively cheap and some real buys down there cropping up. That said, I am staying HERE and running for Congress in 2012. If your going to flee the country instead of buying a local property and stocking it then fine, but do you really think announcing your cowardice gets you credit?
  
  Stick around buddy, we need all the bright minds we can get and you seem to be one of the few acknowledging reality! Lastly, the guys who come in for the crumbs after it's over get the crumbs. The rest of us will be running this country and will dictate what our reward shall be for our honor and sacrifice.
•  
  Did U Think
  The Ponzi
  Scheme
  Would Last?

  Jul 07 07:34 PM
  I am also shocked and apalled at the negativity I see being distributed on this thread. I guess there are not as many head in the sand sheeple as I thought there were. Congradulations on waking up and smelling the Ponzi scheme. I think we all know what is coming next, and it will not be pretty. Start buying puts on everything. Long term, deep out of the money puts. Just throw darts because puts already discount the volatility of every issue and a falling tide will sink all boats. No stock escaped the great depression and no stock will escape the $hitstorm of the great depression 2.0.