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On a Disastrous Jobs Number, Recession is Obvious

by: Michael Shedlock June 08, 2008 | about stocks: DIA / QQQQ / SPY    
Michael Shedlock

Michael Shedlock

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Yahoo!Finance is reporting Unemployment rate jumps to 5.5 percent in May.

The nation's unemployment rate jumped to 5.5 percent in May — the biggest monthly rise since 1986 — as nervous employers cut 49,000 jobs. The latest snapshot of business conditions showed a deeply troubled economy, with dwindling job opportunities in a time of continuing hardship in the housing, credit and financial sectors.

"It was ugly," said Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research.

This was the biggest one-month jump in the rate since February 1986. The increase left the jobless rate at its highest since October 2004.

The government said the number of unemployed people grew by 861,000 in May — rising to 8.5 million. The over-the-month jump in unemployment reflected more workers losing their jobs as well as an increase in those coming into the job market — especially younger people — to look for work, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said.

A year ago, the number of unemployed stood at 6.9 million and the jobless rate was 4.5 percent.

"For the average American there is not debate that the eocnomy is in a recession," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "That's because their net worth is lower, their purchasing power is lower and it is tough to find a job. If you lose a job, it is tough to get back in," he said.
BLS Report

With that lead in, let's take a look at the official report.

This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the May Employment Report. Jobs were negative for a 5th consecutive month. My target of 6% or higher stated unemployment by the end of the year is easily back on track. Here is a synopsis of that report.

The unemployment rate rose from 5.0 to 5.5 percent in May, and nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend down (-49,000), the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. In May, employment continued to fall in construction, manufacturing, retail trade, and temporary help services, while health care continued to add jobs. Average hourly earnings rose by 5 cents, or 0.3 percent, over the month.



Establishment Data



click on chart for sharper image

The establishment data was the 5 consecutive decline.

Highlights
  • 34,000 construction jobs were lost
  • 26,000 manufacturing jobs were lost
  • 27,000 retail trade jobs were lost
  • 29,000 professional and business services jobs were lost
  • 8,000 service providing jobs were added
A total of 57,000 goods producing jobs were lost (higher paying jobs), and for the first time in quite some time, few service providing (generally lower paying jobs) were added. Government, the last pace one wants to see jobs, added 17,000 jobs or the service sector would have actually contracted.

Weakness is now nearly across the board. The last remaining holdouts is education and health services which added 54,000 jobs. But looking ahead there is going to be trouble in this area as states, especially California, cut back services.

These are clearly recession totals yet still we have pundits debating whether or not we are in recession.

Birth/Death Model From Alternate Universe

This was a very weak jobs report. And once again the Birth/Death Model assumptions are from outer space.



click on chart for sharper image

Once again the BLS should be embarrassed to report this data. Its model suggests that there was 42,000 jobs coming from new construction businesses, 23,000 jobs coming from professional services, and a whopping 217,000 jobs in total coming from net new business creation. The economy has slowed to a standstill and the BLS model still has the economy expanding quite rapidly.

Repeating what I said for months now, virtually no one can possibly believe this data. The data is so bad, I doubt those at the BLS even believe it. But that is what their model says so that is what they report.

Inquiring minds will note an additional line (the last line) on the above table this month: over-the-month-change. I have not yet found a description for this line.

BLS Black Box

For those unfamiliar with the birth/death model, monthly jobs adjustments are made by the BLS based on economic assumptions about the birth and death of businesses (not individuals). Those assumptions are made according to estimates of where the BLS thinks we are in the economic cycle.

The BLS has admitted however, that their model will be wrong at economic turning points. And there is no doubt we are long past an economic turning point.

With housing falling like a rock and commercial real estate now following suit, the BLS is assuming that 42,000 new jobs were added in construction. With lenders blowing up and countless self employed real estate professional exiting the business the BLS is assuming 9,000 new jobs were added in financial activities and 23,000 jobs from professional and business services. The total number of jobs added in May by these absurd assumptions was 217,000 jobs.

No doubt you will see some who will subtract 217,000 jobs from -49,000 jobs and conclude that 266,000 jobs were lost in May. Such math is inaccurate.

Here is the pertinent snip from the BLS on Birth/Death Methodology.
  • The net birth/death model component figures are unique to each month and exhibit a seasonal pattern that can result in negative adjustments in some months. These models do not attempt to correct for any other potential error sources in the CES estimates such as sampling error or design limitations.
  • Note that the net birth/death figures are not seasonally adjusted, and are applied to not seasonally adjusted monthly employment links to determine the final estimate.
  • The most significant potential drawback to this or any model-based approach is that time series modeling assumes a predictable continuation of historical patterns and relationships and therefore is likely to have some difficulty producing reliable estimates at economic turning points or during periods when there are sudden changes in trend.
The important point in this mess is that both the job data and employment data are much worse than appears at first glance (and the first glance looked horrid).

Table A-12

Table A-12 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is. Let's take a look



click on chart for sharper image

If you start counting all the people that want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. The official government number rose to 5.5%, but Table A-12 suggests it rose to 9.7%. I believe the latter number is on the low side.

This report was the 6th consecutive disaster, and 5th consecutive contraction. Service jobs were only positive because 17,000 useless government jobs were created. Somehow we are supposed to believe the economy is not in recession.

Related Articles

This article has 33 comments:

  •  
    Jun 08 08:43 AM
    BUT not evident to king george iii "bush administration"!
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 08 08:52 AM
    I have had more requests lately for home business information than ever before. I know that my family is feeling the crunch of high gas and food prices (not to mention our electric bill!) but I'm shocked and saddened by those that have come to me wanting information because they have recently lost their jobs. People from all walks of life from teachers and administrative assistants, to department store workers and those just wanting to build a financial cushion.

    We are most definitely in a recession. How long will it last? That's the question we're afraid to ask.

    For some, a home business isn't the solution. For others, however, it can be a lifeline. Look for a reputable company accredited with BBB, offers a high quality product and has leaders that actually LEAD. Some home business scams just expect you to recruit people, post internet ads or create a pyramid, all without having a product line whatsoever. How long will those businesses last? Hmph.

    Be choosy and be cautious. If it smells like a skunk, it probably is a skunk.
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 08 08:54 AM
    I get so sick of people like this guy talking down the economy. This twit knows very well what the definition of a recession is. Like every journalist with an leftist agenda, however, he goes to great lengths to convince people that one isn't happening. Mind, we may have one at the end of the quarter after next, but regardless of this creep's "analysis" we haven't got one yet.

    Actually, given the oil shock that we've experienced in the past six months, half of Mexico moving up here and flooding the job market and, out here in California were an envirocrazy judge just shut off one-third of the state's water supply because some damned "endangered" smelt was getting caught in the water supply pumps it's amazing we're all not cooking over campfires in the back yard.

    For those of who can remember, our economy went belly up back in the 1970's and we did really have a big-time recession and a nasty thing called "stagflation"... which meant that home loans hit 18%. The economy was a LOT more fragile in those days.

    What's scary is that the economic prescriptions that Obama has in mind are almost identical to the ones Jimmy Carter and Jerry Ford put in place back then. I don't know what the hell McCain has in mind but he's a committed "lets keep all our buying energy from overseas nutjobs instead of drilling and mining any here" and totally opposed to actually having a southern border that means anything just like the looniest of the leftists, so I haven't a lot of hope from the "right". :-(
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 08 08:59 AM
    correcting typos...

    Like every journalist with an leftist agenda, however, he goes to great lengths to convince people that one isn't happening.

    should read

    Like every journalist with an leftist agenda, however, he goes to great lengths to convince people that one IS happening.

    also

    For those of who can remember, our economy went belly up back in the 1970's and we did really have a big-time recession and a nasty thing called "stagflation&... which meant that home loans hit 18%.

    should read

    For those of who can remember, our economy went belly up back in the 1970's and we did really DID have a big-time recession and a nasty thing called "stagflation"... ... which meant that home loans hit 18%.
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 08 09:49 AM
    Shedlock, you are right on. I love reading your rants on Agora, and I believe that you are quite right- the government always manipulates the numbers. But, Mish, why didn't you encourage everyone to buy gold and silver? Give em the cure!!!
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 08 10:34 AM
    Mish! Thanks for the very hard work that gives up another excellent article!
    The nonsensical stream of manipulated crap that has come to characterize the numbers coming from the current government has finally reached the point where it appears that they have even forgotten their previous distortions.
    To deny that we are in recession and to cling to the quaint notion that we only know we're in one after 2 quarters of misery is cruel and unusual punishment, administered by an Administration that has proven itself incompetent in virtually every undertaking.
    The greatest tragedy is a failure to lead at a time when leadership is so desperately needed.

    -plaasjaapie... never mind the typos... it's the substance, not the form of your ad-hominem rant that needs your attention... I hope the rest of your day is better!
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 08 11:23 AM
    Right, how can be people stil denniyng reality?
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 08 11:28 AM
    Reality is not what you make of it, Jose. There are objective definitions for terms. If the objective definition of your term does not fit the fact, pick another term.
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 08 11:31 AM
    Funny you should mention the '70s plaasjaapie. That's exactly where we're headed. Hop you enjoy the 20% interest rates and the death of the construction and RE industries. In fact we'll be LUCKY if it's just like the '70s and not a total collapse of the dollar. Meanwhile the one person who could actually HELP us is being laughed off the stage due to interference by the people who benefit by the collapse of the dollar. You want to do something for youself for a change, make sure it's Ron Paul and not McWar who gets the Republican nomination. Small businesses are 70% of the economy and no one is friendlier to small businesses than Paul.
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 08 11:34 AM
    Think it's bad now? Wait till the mediavand their bosses put Obamasama in the White house. Then the real shit will hit the fan.
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 08 11:43 AM
    I keep hearing the media say that the unemployment rate is low by historical standards. They'd don't seem to understand that they're making an apples to oranges comparison.
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 08 12:08 PM
    plaasjaapie,

    Unfortunately commenting is not reserved for the lucid or literate.
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 08 12:09 PM
    plaasjaapie,

    correcting text -

    Commenting should be reserved for the lucid and the literate.
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 08 12:31 PM
    Jay Jay, your right...many of us have been around sooo long, we remember what REAL unemployment was like and you didn't need then and you don't need now, some bloated government bureaucracy telling us what are problems are...we KNOW what our problems are and who's responsible!!! BTW Jay Jay, are you by any chance an "old" Douglas-ite?
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 08 01:05 PM
    Inardozi: "Funny you should mention the '70s plaasjaapie. That's exactly where we're headed."

    I couldn't agree more. The scary part is that I don't think that either party has fielded a candidate who has even the smallest clue of the nature of the mess we've got ourselves into never mind a coherent plan for getting us out of it. :-(

    You guys aren't going to like the 70's redux. You seem to have forgotten as well that it took four years of Nixon/Ford stupidity and another four years of Carteresque foolishness before the public had had enough and gave the government to Reagan with an enormous landslide.

    Sadly, the parties who fielded this dog's dinner of "presidential&quo... aspirants and most of the voters who held their noses and made a selection regardless either didn't experience the debacle of the 70's or have conveniently forgotten. :-s

    Reply
  •  
    Jun 08 01:07 PM
    Most of this is the dumbest crap I have heard in a long time. A recession is defined, by economists, as 2 quarters (6 months) of negative economic growth. That definition has been in place for decades. I don't think we have had even a month of negative growth yet. You spoiled little brats have come to believe that 4 percent growth is somehow your birthrite. Our economy has always waxed and wained and it always will.
    I seem to remember back in the slick Willie days, 5.4% unemployment was considered to be full employment.
    The recent problem with oil prices can be laid at the feet of the environmentalist movement and our government support of their position. They are the reason that we have to burn coal for our electricity. We have not built a new nuclear plant since the 60s. Their heros, the french, get about 90% of their electricity from nuclear plants. They are the reason that we can not drill to get oil off the coasts of Florida and California. Some sunbather might see the platforms and be offended. (They would be below the horizon, stupid). They are the reason that we can not get oil from north Alaska. They are the reason we have not allowed a new oil refinery to be built in 30 years. Don't misunderstand me, I am all in favor of viable, alternative energy sources. Windmills seem to be viable even though they are disastrous to the local bird population. I also would be in favor of turning coal into diesel fuel. But, the notion of getting our nations energy from solar cell and french fry grease seems problematic to me.
    Hang in there folks and don't panic, this to shall pass.
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 08 01:21 PM
    Exactly, Snak. I'm not saying that slow growth is awesome or anything. It's not fun. Higher unemployment is also not good. But what is pissing me off is when people cite high unemployment to "prove" that we're in a recession. It's sensationalism at its finest. 2 quarters of decline in the GDP. THAT is a recession. NOT a decline in growth. NOT high unemployment.

    I'm not saying Bush is rad, either, and I'll be damned if I'm voting for McCain. I am voting for Ron Paul.
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 08 02:08 PM
    Snak, you miss the point of us tree hugger. We know more cheap oil will save the Hummer from extinction but it won't solve our addition to the use of oil, a finite resource. It you look up finite in the dictionary you will find it means limited. So maybe we can get a few mile out of the off shore in California but it won't fix the problem.
    I am really sad we as a nation waited until the pissed off Arabs decided to get even with us for invading an unarmed Iraq for there oil. We should have done what they do in France and all of Europe, that is tax the hell out of oil and using the money to build public transportation system that work.
    Now we find that oil is being taxed by the Arabs and will be used to fund terrorism. So if you really believe that us Eviormentalist are causing the decline of the oil supply, you might drive a Hummer. Can I suggest rethinking the oil/gas tax. It will slow the economy but help drive down the demand for oil, this in increase supply. Also if the money is used to build a public transportation system this will also save oil which will deprive our enemies of cash. It is the patriotic thing to do.
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 08 02:44 PM
    Fastcad: The problem isn't loving the environment per se, it's the basic thoughtlessness (I have to call it that because if I thought for a minute it was anything else I'd be leading a mob with rope and looking for handy streetlights) and the basic hypocrisy of environmental activists.

    The biggest hypocrisy is the fact that environmental activists are for limited growth but they're also for open borders. How does that work, exactly?

    The second biggest is pretending that how things are done in Europe is both superior and applicable to the US situation. Here's a news flash. Europe is about the size of the American South. If we had our whole population stuffed into that small an area trains and public transport would work just fine. We don't and it doesn't. Something you might have missed as well is that most of the air pollution in the Los Angeles basin is from ... wait for it ... diesel engines. Guess what uses diesel engines ... public transport, my friend. If you look at the load factors for buses on spread out routes like you get in most American cities you'll find that cars are actually more fuel efficient. We could have made more dense cities, but we still educate city planners to worship city maps and play retarded games like "business will be here" and "houses will be way over here". The bastards turned the Monterey Peninsula, which was a very income mixed area into a completely high rent district some thirty years ago via "urban renewal" and city planning to the point that now the people who actually work here, as opposed to clipping cupons off their municipal bonds every month, have to live over in Salinas and to a 60 mile round trip commute daily. That's not something that raising gas taxes and restricting gas supplies like you propose is going to fix. Neither is putting long distance buses in. Problem with long distance buses is that they take you typically from city center to city center which begs the question of how you get to your city center to get on the bus and then when you get off the bus you've got to make several more connections to get to your workplace. What mass transit does in our cities is mean that people who have to commute leave their house before dawn and get back after dusk. Where do suppose that leaves their kids? Hmmm?

    You play like as well that Europe is such an energetic success because they tax the hell out of gas. If it wasn't for Russian oil and gas and French nukes, my friend, they'd be up the proverbial creek without the proverbial paddle.

    Reply
  •  
    Jun 08 04:14 PM
    Eventually, with the environmentalists controlling us all the way, we will all be thrilled to see all the birds and animals as we walk to work. Here's a fact that people seem to have forgotten: Almost everything manmade is disastrous to animals, including cars, trucks and buses (road kill), glass windows (birds), buildings (wildlife of all kinds), roads (wildlife), planes (birds), guns... the animals adapt. How far are you willing to walk to work? In my area, there are no buses. No trains.
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 08 05:37 PM
    Contrary to popular belief, a recession is not defined as two quarters of negative GDP growth. I’m not sure who exactly came up with that idea, but I’m fairly confident it was someone in the media trying to feed America’s uneducated society.
    The National Bureau of Economic Research is the only organization that really tells us when we are in a recession. And even they don’t know until after the fact.
    The thought that we should know the exact moment that we are in a recession is obnoxious; it takes months to compile all the data you need to truly understand this kind of stuff.
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 08 05:58 PM
    Europe has had 8-12% unemployment for 20 years. Are they whinning?

    Only time will tell if this is a recession. I see few starving people.
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 08 08:11 PM
    Wilesmt: Contrary to YOUR belief, the 2 quarters of negative GDP growth is not merely popular belief:

    2nd definition given by The Economist: www.economist.com/rese... (granted, there is also the first definition, which The Economist admits is hard to prove. Hence, the 2nd definition.)

    Alan Deardorff, from the University of Michigan: www-personal.umich.edu/~alandear/glossary/r.... (scroll down to find "recession"....

    Dr. Paul M. Johnson from Auburn University: www.auburn.edu/~johnspm/gloss/depres... (Yes, I do know that the NBER is the definitive answer as to whether we're in a recession, but as Dr. Johnson states, the NBER rulings are really only useful to historians and economic theory-builders. Those of us who want to know what is going on NOW as opposed to a couple years ago can use the 2 negative growth quarter method, which is used by all professional economists.)

    Good thing none of those sources are reliable or informed. They're probably just part of that "popular belief" thing you were talking about.

    Ok, for those of us in the real world, we can't really make policy decisions based on what happened a couple years ago. Thus, 2 successive quarters of negative growth in the GDP is what will tell everyone but wilesmt whether we're in a recession. Wilesmt, however, will not know for a couple years yet. Let us know how it turns out.

    Reply
  •  
    Jun 09 12:50 AM
    5.5 is ridiculously low, it would count as a healthy unemployment rate in Australia. We go gaga when our unemployment rate hits 4.1% (lowest record unemplyoment)

    Still, the rising trend, rubbish house prices and the Street firing just about anyone who isn't making $$$'s is a little disconcerting.
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 09 02:54 AM
    Fastcad.
    No, I do not miss the point. The enviromentalists are a bunch of eletist idiots who think that they know best. That they are annointed with the knowledge that will save us all from ourselves. They are people whos lives are so empty, that they have invented the religion of the enviroment because they could not find anything else to beleave in.
    Who are you to tell me that I can not buy and then drive a Hummer. That is none of your damn business. This crap about running out of oil started in Pennsylvania back in the late 19th or early 20th century when the Pennsylvania well dryed up. Oh My God. We Are Out Of Oil. WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE. Then a massive oil strick was made near Beaumont Texas and we have been finding it ever since. By the way, the latest theories about oil say that it is created as a byproduct of natural heat processes within the earth. If that is the case, we may never run out.
    No, the enviromentalist groups are just the next place for the communist/marxist movements to continue to destroy this country. I do realize that most of you who call yourselves enviromentalists aren't marxists. You are what Lennon (not John) called "usefull idiots".
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 09 06:54 AM
    Regarding: "Inquiring minds will note an additional line (the last line) on the above table this month: over-the-month-change. I have not yet found a description for this line." It's the not seasonally adjusted over-the-month (May) change in payroll employment. It's what the birth/death adjustment--which is also not seasonally adjusted--should be compared to.
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 09 11:34 AM
    Fastcad: Interesting how you cite France as a role-model. In one aspect, I would totally agree with you....nuclear power. France is the leader in nuclear power. You down with that?
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 09 11:34 AM
    Fastcad: Interesting how you cite France as a role-model. In one aspect, I would totally agree with you....nuclear power. France is the leader in nuclear power. You down with that?
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 10 09:12 AM
    Ask Japan about the effects of nuclear waste in the environment. Snak hope you buy a hummer and I hope you can afford to fill-er-up. I have seen the writing on the wall. We can believe that oil is a natural by-product of the earths heat. You can all so believe in the tooth fairy.
    I refuse to pretend everything is alright in the world and just let the market solve all our problems. I am a liberal, I believe in fighting for my country and paying my taxes.
    I lived in Humboldt County, California for many years. I saw the loggers cut the Redwood trees down. They said not to worry, they grow fast and we are planting more trees than they are cutting down. Well, the only old growth redwood forest left is in the parks. Now the loggers are unemployed and growing pot. They complain that it is all those trees (7,000 acres) in the parks is the cause of there unemployment not all that wasteful clear cutting they did.
    So maybe oil is being produced Naturally in mother earth, but we are wasting it faster than the redwood forest can regenerate.
    So drive that Hummer and support your local Terrorist in the process.
    Me I going to take the bus, train and ride a bike, like a real American. Not some pampered Republican. So all the easy oil will be gone, maybe 20 Years, are we going to be like those unemployed loggers growing pot for a living. Not me, I intend to find a alternative to oil. Is is time to move on before we can't.
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 10 01:52 PM
    Sooooo, with Japan, are you talking about the bombs we dropped on them? Because you KNOW that France has more nuclear power plants than anywhere else in the world, right? They love them. You also know that a nuclear power plant is, well, NOT the same as a bomb, right? I hate to assume you know these things, because when I factor that into your diatribe, you sound as though you don't really have a passing familiarity with logic. So perhaps you DIDN'T know that a nuclear power plant, like what is in use ALL OVER THE PLACE in your enlightened France, is nowhere near the same as a nuclear bomb. And perhaps you didn't know that it was the US that dropped a nuclear bomb on Japan, and it was not a nuclear power plant that we dropped. I hope you are now informed.
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 10 10:58 PM
    Sooo, do you think that the nuclear waste from a power plant is some how different than than the fall out from a nuclear bomb? Now you do know that Plutomn is a by product of a nucular power plant. And I asume you know that one molecule of plutomum will cause luane canser in humans. You are human aren't you. So maybe we can trust the nuclear industry to not spill any power plant waste.
    Maybe you would like to raise your family next to a neclear power plant. Not me.
    Reply
  •  
    Jul 31 12:09 PM
    30 Jul 2008 Market Close...consisted of a Rally late in the day...attributed to "a positive report on unmemployment declines by ADP!"

    Now here's my BEEF!

    During stable economic periods, job statistics from private or government sources have, in my opinion some validity. However, with high-paying job losses going overseas due to WTO/Nafta - e.g. lots of IT to India - and domestic massive job layoffs in the brokerage sector, etc...

    Kind of see my point. We no longer have a "stable economic period." So, it is my contention that most "unemployment/job... number statistics ARE VERY, AND PURPOSEFULLY MISLEADING. Consider the following example:

    Citibank lays off 100 brokers at 100k each annual salary...net loss 10,000,000 dollars in Consumer Purchasing Power at Target, etc...

    Walmart/McDonalds HIRES 200 clerks at 20k each annual salary...net gain 4,000,000 dollars in Consumer Purchasing Power at Target, etc...

    The spin: jobs WENT UP 100%

    The reality: "Real Aggregate Consumer Purchasing Power" went down OVER 50%! (6,000,000 dollars)

    So you see that's how "bull-spin-doctor... make IT LOOK GOOD ...when in Reality...ITS GETTING WORSE!

    Government UNEMPLOYMENT numbers are virtually worthless...JOB SALARY (X) EMPLOYEES (gain/loss) = Real gain/loss in Comsumer Purchasing Power...THIS IS "what they should be telling us".

    so this is WHAT WE NEED FROM THE GOV... numbers THAT ACCURATELY REFLECT THE "REAL SITUATION!"

    I mean, how is one expected to evaluate mkt data for investing, if you, or other investors are getting MISLEADING NUMBERS, and making "investment decisions" based on THAT MISLEADING DATA!

    Given the current shaky climate, isn't it time to demand the gov's numbers really indicate something!!!

    flashrob
    Reply
  •  
    Aug 01 08:35 PM
    REALITY OF GOV'S UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS!

    www.nytimes.com/2008/0...

    FLASHROB
    Reply
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